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Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Wenqing Liu , Xenia Miscouridou , Déborah Sulem

Neural processes have recently emerged as a class of powerful neural latent variable models that combine the strengths of neural networks and stochastic processes. As they can encode contextual data in the network's function space, they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Jiayi Shen , Xiantong Zhen , Marcel Worring , Ling Shao

We consider the learning of multi-agent Hawkes processes, a model containing multiple Hawkes processes with shared endogenous impact functions and different exogenous intensities. In the framework of stochastic maximum likelihood…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-15 Hongteng Xu , Xu Chen , Lawrence Carin

Most point process models for earthquakes currently in the literature assume the magnitude distribution is i.i.d. potentially hindering the ability of the model to describe the main features of data sets containing multiple earthquake…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-06 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Manon Costa , Pascal Maillard , Anthony Muraro

It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-30 Leigh Shlomovich , Edward A. K. Cohen , Niall Adams

This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-10 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Young Lee , Swapnil Mishra , Lexing Xie

Abstract. Most of the real world data we encounter are asynchronous event sequence, so the last decades have been characterized by the implementation of various point process into the field of social networks,electronic medical records and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Zhi-yan Song , Jian-wei Liu , Lu-ning Zhang , Ya-nan Han

The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Haixu Wang

We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-18 Santhosh Narayanan , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

We present a stability study of the class of multivariate self-excited Hawkes point processes, that can model natural and social systems, including earthquakes, epileptic seizures and the dynamics of neuron assemblies, bursts of exchanges…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-27 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

In this paper we consider point processes specified on directed linear networks, i.e. linear networks with associated directions. We adapt the so-called conditional intensity function used for specifying point processes on the time line to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Jakob G. Rasmussen , Heidi S. Christensen

Ever since the advent of the neuron doctrine more than a century ago, information processing in the brain is widely believed to mainly follow the forward pre to post-synaptic neurons direction. Challenging this prevalent view, in this…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-15 Zied Ben Houidi

Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 François Roueff , Rainer Von Sachs

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Chao Qu , Xiaoyu Tan , Siqiao Xue , Xiaoming Shi , James Zhang , Hongyuan Mei

We examine the stability and qualitative dynamics of stochastic neuronal networks specified as multivariate nonlinear Hawkes processes and related point-process generalized linear models that incorporate both auto- and cross-history…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-12-13 Dmitrii Todorov , Wilson Truccolo

As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-31 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

We prove a law of large numbers and functional central limit theorem for a class of multivariate Hawkes processes with time-dependent reproduction rate. We address the difficulties induced by the use of non-convolutive Volterra processes by…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet , Antoine Lotz