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We study infinite-horizon robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) on continuous state spaces with structured rectangular ambiguity set. The proposed ambiguity set falls within the convex hull of unknown generating kernels. We utilize the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Mengmeng Li , Yifan Hu , Daniel Kuhn , Yan Li

The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-22 Timo Dimitriadis , Yannick Hoga

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has gained substantial attention across diverse application domains and theoretical investigations. Existing literature on RL theory largely focuses on risk-neutral settings where the decision-maker learns to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Zhengqi Wu , Renyuan Xu

In this paper, we propose the multivariate range Value-at-Risk (MRVaR) and the multivariate range covariance (MRCov) as two risk measures and explore their desirable properties in risk management. In particular, we explain that such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Baishuai Zuo , Chuancun Yin , Jing Yao

This paper studies the expected value of multiplicative rewards, where rewards obtained in each step are multiplied (instead of the usual addition), in Markov chains (MCs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs). One of the key differences to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Christel Baier , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Tobias Meggendorfer , Jakob Piribauer

Processes (MDPs) often require frequent decision making, that is, taking an action every microsecond, second, or minute. Infinite horizon discount reward formulation is still relevant for a large portion of these applications, because…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-12-17 Yin-Lam Chow , Junjie Qin

Interval Markov decision processes are a class of Markov models where the transition probabilities between the states belong to intervals. In this paper, we study the problem of efficient estimation of the optimal policies in Interval…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-19 Saber Jafarpour , Samuel Coogan

In this paper, we consider Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with error states. Error states are those states entering which is undesirable or dangerous. We define the risk with respect to a policy as the probability of entering such a state…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-09-13 P. Geibel , F. Wysotzki

Optimizing risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a general loss distribution is usually difficult, because 1) the loss function might lack structural properties such as convexity or…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-08-03 Helin Zhu , Joshua Hale , Enlu Zhou

One often encounters the curse of dimensionality in the application of dynamic programming to determine optimal policies for controlled Markov chains. In this paper, we provide a method to construct sub-optimal policies along with a bound…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2011-08-17 Myoungkuk Park , Krishnamoorthy Kalyanam , Swaroop Darbha , Phil Chandler , Meir Pachter

Value iteration is a fundamental algorithm for solving Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). It computes the maximal $n$-step payoff by iterating $n$ times a recurrence equation which is naturally associated to the MDP. At the same time, value…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2019-04-30 Nikhil Balaji , Stefan Kiefer , Petr Novotný , Guillermo A. Pérez , Mahsa Shirmohammadi

A classic solution technique for Markov decision processes (MDP) and stochastic games (SG) is value iteration (VI). Due to its good practical performance, this approximative approach is typically preferred over exact techniques, even though…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-04-21 Jan Křetínský , Tobias Meggendorfer , Maximilian Weininger

We consider finite horizon Markov decision processes under performance measures that involve both the mean and the variance of the cumulative reward. We show that either randomized or history-based policies can improve performance. We prove…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-05-02 Shie Mannor , John Tsitsiklis

For infinite-horizon average-cost criterion problems, there exist relatively few rigorous approximation and reinforcement learning results. In this paper, for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with standard Borel spaces, (i) we first provide…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Ali Devran Kara , Serdar Yuksel

Optimizing Conditional Value-at-risk (CVaR) using policy gradient (a.k.a CVaR-PG) faces significant challenges of sample inefficiency. This inefficiency stems from the fact that it focuses on tail-end performance and overlooks many sampled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Yudong Luo , Erick Delage

Safety in stochastic control systems, which are subject to random noise with a known probability distribution, aims to compute policies that satisfy predefined operational constraints with high confidence throughout the uncertain evolution…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-12 Saber Omidi , Marek Petrik , Se Young Yoon , Momotaz Begum

We study discrete-time Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) on finite state-action spaces and analyze the stability of optimal policies and value functions in the long-run discounted risk-sensitive objective setting. Our analysis addresses…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-13 Nicole Bäuerle , Marcin Pitera , Łukasz Stettner

The paper addresses two variants of the stochastic shortest path problem ('optimize the accumulated weight until reaching a goal state') in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with integer weights. The first variant optimizes partial expected…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-05-01 Jakob Piribauer , Christel Baier

Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-18 Takaaki Koike , Mihoko Minami

We consider risk-sensitive Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the MDP model is influenced by a parameter which takes values in a compact metric space. We identify sufficient conditions under which small perturbations in the model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Shiping Shao , Abhishek Gupta , William B. Haskell
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