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Reconstructing evolutionary trees from molecular sequence data is a fundamental problem in computational biology. Stochastic models of sequence evolution are closely related to spin systems that have been extensively studied in statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-20 Sebastien Roch , Allan Sly

We investigate the optimization landscape of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the Cavender-Farris-Neyman (CFN) model, a two-state latent tree model fundamental to statistical phylogenetics and the ferromagnetic Ising model. Although…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 David Clancy , Hanbaek Lyu , Sebastien Roch

Phylogenetic trees are key data objects in biology, and the method of phylogenetic reconstruction has been highly developed. The space of phylogenetic trees is a nonpositively curved metric space. Recently, statistical methods to analyze…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-23 Yuki Takazawa , Tomonari Sei

We study the optimization landscape of the log-likelihood function and the convergence of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in latent Gaussian tree models, i.e. tree-structured Gaussian graphical models whose leaf nodes are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Yuval Dagan , Constantinos Daskalakis , Anthimos Vardis Kandiros

The evolution of aligned DNA sequence sites is generally modeled by a Markov process operating along the edges of a phylogenetic tree. It is well known that the probability distribution on the site patterns at the tips of the tree…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-10-15 Benny Chor , Mike Steel

A very popular class of models for networks posits that each node is represented by a point in a continuous latent space, and that the probability of an edge between nodes is a decreasing function of the distance between them in this latent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-07 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , Dena Marie Asta

Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-02 Justin Domke

It is common in phylogenetics to have some, perhaps partial, information about the overall evolutionary tree of a group of organisms and wish to find an evolutionary tree of a specific gene for those organisms. There may not be enough…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-01-09 Vu Dinh , Lam Si Tung Ho , Marc A. Suchard , Frederick A. Matsen

We study probability density functions that are log-concave. Despite the space of all such densities being infinite-dimensional, the maximum likelihood estimate is the exponential of a piecewise linear function determined by finitely many…

We consider a broadcasting problem on a tree where a binary digit (e.g., a spin or a nucleotide's purine/pyrimidine type) is propagated from the root to the leaves through symmetric noisy channels on the edges that randomly flip the state…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-24 David Clancy , Hanbaek Lyu , Sebastien Roch , Allan Sly

With advances in sequencing technologies, there are now massive amounts of genomic data from across all life, leading to the possibility that a robust Tree of Life can be constructed. However, "gene tree heterogeneity", which is when…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-03-08 Sebastien Roch , Michael Nute , Tandy Warnow

Likelihood-based methods are widely considered the best approaches for reconstructing ancestral states. Although much effort has been made to study properties of these methods, previous works often assume that both the tree topology and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Lam Si Tung Ho , Edward Susko

Broadcasting on trees is a fundamental model from statistical physics that plays an important role in information theory, noisy computation and phylogenetic reconstruction within computational biology and linguistics. While this model…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Han Huang , Elchanan Mossel

The controlled branching process is a generalization of the classical Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson branching process. It is a useful model for describing the evolution of populations in which the population size at each generation needs to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-09 M. Gonzalez , C. Minuesa , I. del Puerto

The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from discrete character data typically relies on models that assume the characters evolve under a continuous-time Markov process operating at some overall rate $\lambda$. When $\lambda$ is too high…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-03-13 Mike Steel , Christoph Leuenberger

Latent tree graphical models are widely used in computational biology, signal and image processing, and network tomography. Here we design a new efficient, estimation procedure for latent tree models, including Gaussian and discrete,…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-09-23 Elchanan Mossel , Sebastien Roch , Allan Sly

We study the problem of learning multivariate log-concave densities with respect to a global loss function. We obtain the first upper bound on the sample complexity of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a log-concave density on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Timothy Carpenter , Ilias Diakonikolas , Anastasios Sidiropoulos , Alistair Stewart

In this paper, we study two problems: (1) estimation of a $d$-dimensional log-concave distribution and (2) bounded multivariate convex regression with random design with an underlying log-concave density or a compactly supported…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-21 Gil Kur , Yuval Dagan , Alexander Rakhlin

The reconstruction of a species tree from genomic data faces a double hurdle. First, the (gene) tree describing the evolution of each gene may differ from the species tree, for instance, due to incomplete lineage sorting. Second, the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-07 Sebastien Roch , Mike Steel

Maximum likelihood estimators are used extensively to estimate unknown parameters of stochastic trait evolution models on phylogenetic trees. Although the MLE has been proven to converge to the true value in the independent-sample case, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-26 Lam Si Tung Ho , Vu Dinh , Frederick A. Matsen , Marc A. Suchard
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