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In observational research treatment effects, the average treatment effect (ATE) estimator may be biased if a confounding variable is misclassified. We discuss the impact of classification error in a dichotomous confounding variable in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-13 Linda Nab , Rolf H. H. Groenwold , Maarten van Smeden , Ruth H. Keogh

Behavioral research can provide important insights for SE practices. But in performing it, many studies of SE are committing a normative fallacy - they misappropriate normative and prescriptive theories for descriptive purposes. The…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2020-05-08 Christoph Becker

Structural failure time models are causal models for estimating the effect of time-varying treatments on a survival outcome. G-estimation and artificial censoring have been proposed to estimate the model parameters in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-19 Shu Yang , Karen Pieper , Frank Cools

This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-14 Karun Adusumilli

Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Clara Fannjiang , Stephen Bates , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Jennifer Listgarten , Michael I. Jordan

In settings where ML models are used to inform the allocation of resources, agents affected by the allocation decisions might have an incentive to strategically change their features to secure better outcomes. While prior work has studied…

A Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine which assumptions for ordered categorical data, continuity vs. discrete categories, most frequently identifies the underlying factor structure when a response variable has five ordered…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-17 R. Noah Padgett , Rebecca J. Tipton

Social and economic studies are often implemented as complex survey designs. For example, multistage, unequal probability sampling designs utilized by federal statistical agencies are typically constructed to maximize the efficiency of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-09 Matthew R. Williams , Terrance D. Savitsky

Practitioners making decisions based on causal effects typically ignore structural uncertainty. We analyze when this uncertainty is consequential enough to warrant methodological solutions (Bayesian model averaging over competing causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Maurits Kaptein

The LLM community often reports benchmark results as if they are synonymous with general model capabilities. However, benchmarks can have problems that distort performance, like test set contamination and annotator error. How can we know…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Ryan Othniel Kearns

We consider selection of random predictors for high-dimensional regression problem with binary response for a general loss function. Important special case is when the binary model is semiparametric and the response function is misspecified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Mariusz Kubkowski , Jan Mielniczuk

Mixed-effect models are flexible tools for researchers in a myriad of fields, but that flexibility comes at the cost of complexity and if users are not careful in how their model is specified, they could be making faulty inferences from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-28 Keith R. Lohse , Allan J. Kozlowski , Michael J. Strube

Model selection often aims to choose a single model, assuming that the form of the model is correct. However, there may be multiple possible underlying explanatory patterns in a set of predictors that could explain a response. Model…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-17 Laura J. Wendelberger , Brian J. Reich , Alyson G. Wilson

Data-driven optimization aims to translate a machine learning model into decision-making by optimizing decisions on estimated costs. Such a pipeline can be conducted by fitting a distributional model which is then plugged into the target…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Adam N. Elmachtoub , Henry Lam , Haixiang Lan , Haofeng Zhang

This paper considers filtering, parameter estimation, and testing for potentially dynamically misspecified state-space models. When dynamics are misspecified, filtered values of state variables often do not satisfy model restrictions,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-27 Jean-Jacques Forneron , Zhongjun Qu

Empirical research typically involves a robustness-efficiency tradeoff. A researcher seeking to estimate a scalar parameter can invoke strong assumptions to motivate a restricted estimator that is precise but may be heavily biased, or they…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-17 Timothy B. Armstrong , Patrick Kline , Liyang Sun

Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Yixin Wang , Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei

We present a boosting-based method to learn additive Structural Equation Models (SEMs) from observational data, with a focus on the theoretical aspects of determining the causal order among variables. We introduce a family of score…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-15 Maximilian Kertel , Nadja Klein

A multiplier bootstrap procedure for construction of likelihood-based confidence sets is considered for finite samples and a possible model misspecification. Theoretical results justify the bootstrap validity for a small or moderate sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-18 Vladimir Spokoiny , Mayya Zhilova

Labeling data for modern machine learning is expensive and time-consuming. Latent variable models can be used to infer labels from weaker, easier-to-acquire sources operating on unlabeled data. Such models can also be trained using labeled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-05 Mayee F. Chen , Benjamin Cohen-Wang , Stephen Mussmann , Frederic Sala , Christopher Ré