Related papers: Bayesian Predictive Inference Beyond Martingales
A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data…
The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…
Bayesian methods have proven themselves to be successful across a wide range of scientific problems and have many well-documented advantages over competing methods. However, these methods run into difficulties for two major and prevalent…
This paper is concerned with making Bayesian inference from data that are assumed to be drawn from a Bingham distribution. A barrier to the Bayesian approach is the parameter-dependent normalising constant of the Bingham distribution,…
We present a set of high-probability inequalities that control the concentration of weighted averages of multiple (possibly uncountably many) simultaneously evolving and interdependent martingales. Our results extend the PAC-Bayesian…
There is an increasing amount of literature focused on Bayesian computational methods to address problems with intractable likelihood. One approach is a set of algorithms known as Approximate Bayesian Computational (ABC) methods. One of the…
Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…
To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…
We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
This paper proposes the asymmetric linear double autoregression, which jointly models the conditional mean and conditional heteroscedasticity characterized by asymmetric effects. A sufficient condition is established for the existence of a…
A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…
Real-life statistical samples are often plagued by selection bias, which complicates drawing conclusions about the general population. When learning causal relationships between the variables is of interest, the sample may be assumed to be…
Using an asymmetric Laplace distribution, which provides a mechanism for Bayesian inference of quantile regression models, we develop a fully Bayesian approach to fitting single-index models in conditional quantile regression. In this work,…
This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…
Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…
We address the computational efficiency in solving the A-optimal Bayesian design of experiments problems for which the observational map is based on partial differential equations and, consequently, is computationally expensive to evaluate.…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…
We pursue tractable Bayesian analysis of generalized linear models (GLMs) for categorical data. Thus far, GLMs are difficult to scale to more than a few dozen categories due to non-conjugacy or strong posterior dependencies when using…