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This paper proposes a flexible new framework for constructing Neyman-orthogonal scores in semiparametric models involving infinite-dimensional nuisance parameters. While locally estimation is vital for integrating machine learning into…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Kun Ren , Wen Su , Li Liu , Ian W. McKeague , Xingqiu Zhao

The practical utility of causality in decision-making is widespread and brought about by the intertwining of causal discovery and causal inference. Nevertheless, a notable gap exists in the evaluation of causal discovery methods, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Chris Chinenye Emezue , Alexandre Drouin , Tristan Deleu , Stefan Bauer , Yoshua Bengio

Predicting the response of nonlinear dynamical systems subject to random, broadband excitation is important across a range of scientific disciplines, such as structural dynamics and neuroscience. Building data-driven models requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Joseph Massingham , Ole Nielsen , Tore Butlin

The performance of Neyman-Pearson detection of correlated stochastic signals using noisy observations is investigated via the error exponent for the miss probability with a fixed level. Using the state-space structure of the signal and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Youngchul Sung , Lang Tong , H. Vincent Poor

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Biwei Huang , Kun Zhang , Jiji Zhang , Joseph Ramsey , Ruben Sanchez-Romero , Clark Glymour , Bernhard Schölkopf

Controlling false positives (Type I errors) through statistical hypothesis testing is a foundation of modern scientific data analysis. Existing causal structure discovery algorithms either do not provide Type I error control or cannot scale…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 James Leiner , Brian Manzo , Aaditya Ramdas , Wesley Tansey

Dynamic causal discovery in wireless networks is essential due to evolving interference, fading, and mobility, which complicate traditional static causal models. This paper addresses causal inference challenges in dynamic fading wireless…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Oluwaseyi Giwa

The growing availability and importance of time series data across various domains, including environmental science, epidemiology, and economics, has led to an increasing need for time-series causal discovery methods that can identify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Omar Faruque , Sahara Ali , Xue Zheng , Jianwu Wang

In this work, we discover that causal inference provides a promising approach to capture heterophilic message-passing in Graph Neural Network (GNN). By leveraging cause-effect analysis, we can discern heterophilic edges based on asymmetric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Botao Wang , Jia Li , Heng Chang , Keli Zhang , Fugee Tsung

Neural networks have proven to be effective at solving machine learning tasks but it is unclear whether they learn any relevant causal relationships, while their black-box nature makes it difficult for modellers to understand and debug…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Fabrizio Russo , Francesca Toni

Causal discovery from time series is a fundamental task in machine learning. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by a reliance on untestable causal assumptions and by the lack of robustness-oriented evaluation in existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Huiyang Yi , Xiaojian Shen , Yonggang Wu , Duxin Chen , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Ascertaining causal direction from observational data is a fundamental challenge in scientific inquiry. Of particular interest is the problem of covariate-adjusted bivariate causal discovery, i.e., determining the causal direction between X…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Soumik Purkayastha , Peter X. -K. Song

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Emil Javurek , Dennis Frauen , Yuxin Wang , Stefan Feuerriegel

In recent years a lot of research has been conducted within the area of causal inference and causal learning. Many methods have been developed to identify the cause-effect pairs in models and have been successfully applied to observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-26 Benjamin Kap

Causal discovery with latent variables is a fundamental task. Yet most existing methods rely on strong structural assumptions, such as enforcing specific indicator patterns for latents or restricting how they can interact with others. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Haoyue Dai , Immanuel Albrecht , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

We consider linear non-Gaussian structural equation models that involve latent confounding. In this setting, the causal structure is identifiable, but, in general, it is not possible to identify the specific causal effects. Instead, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-12 Daniela Schkoda , Elina Robeva , Mathias Drton

Going beyond correlations, the understanding and identification of causal relationships in observational time series, an important subfield of Causal Discovery, poses a major challenge. The lack of access to a well-defined ground truth for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Andrew R. Lawrence , Marcus Kaiser , Rui Sampaio , Maksim Sipos

We consider the problem of identifying a pattern of faults from a set of noisy linear measurements. Unfortunately, maximum a posteriori probability estimation of the fault pattern is computationally intractable. To solve the fault…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Danny Bickson , Dror Baron , Alex T. Ihler , Harel Avissar , Danny Dolev

Evaluating graphs learned by causal discovery algorithms is difficult: The number of edges that differ between two graphs does not reflect how the graphs differ with respect to the identifying formulas they suggest for causal effects. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-12 Leonard Henckel , Theo Würtzen , Sebastian Weichwald

Causal Structure Learning (CSL), also referred to as causal discovery, amounts to extracting causal relations among variables in data. CSL enables the estimation of causal effects from observational data alone, avoiding the need to perform…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Fabrizio Russo , Francesca Toni
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