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Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHHMM) are a subclass of dependent mixture models used for semi-supervised learning, where both transition probabilities between the latent states and mean parameter of the probability distribution of…

The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with many applications in fields such as finance, signal analysis and biology. A wide variety of literature exists for finding an ideal set of…

Recursive Marginal Quantization (RMQ) allows fast approximation of solutions to stochastic differential equations in one-dimension. When applied to two factor models, RMQ is inefficient due to the fact that the optimization problem is…

We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…

Social learning strategies enable agents to infer the underlying true state of nature in a distributed manner by receiving private environmental signals and exchanging beliefs with their neighbors. Previous studies have extensively focused…

This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…

The hidden Markov model (HMM) has been a workhorse of single molecule data analysis and is now commonly used as a standalone tool in time series analysis or in conjunction with other analyses methods such as tracking. Here we provide a…

Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the mainstays of statistical modeling of discrete time series, with applications including speech recognition, computational biology, computer vision and econometrics. Estimating an HMM from its…

In this paper, we introduce a variant of hidden Markov models in which the transition probabilities between the states, as well as the emission distributions, are not constant in time but vary in a periodic manner. This class of models,…

Language models based on deep neural networks and traditional stochastic modelling have become both highly functional and effective in recent times. In this work, a general survey into the two types of language modelling is conducted. We…

Multiscale stochastic volatility models have been developed as an efficient way to capture the principle effects on derivative pricing and portfolio optimization of randomly varying volatility. The recent book Fouque, Papanicolaou, Sircar…

We develop a novel approach for the construction of quantile processes governing the stochastic dynamics of quantiles in continuous time. Two classes of quantile diffusions are identified: the first, which we largely focus on, features a…

We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for…

In the option valuation literature, the shortcomings of one factor stochastic volatility models have traditionally been addressed by adding jumps to the stock price process. An alternate approach in the context of option pricing and…

We demonstrate the application of pattern recognition algorithms via hidden Markov models (HMM) for qubit readout. This scheme provides a state-path trajectory approach capable of detecting qubit state transitions and makes for a robust…

A popular way to estimate the parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM) is direct numerical maximization (DNM) of the (log-)likelihood function. The advantages of employing the TMB (Kristensen et al., 2016) framework in R for this purpose…

In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead…

Latent variable models have been playing a central role in psychometrics and related fields. In many modern applications, the inference based on latent variable models involves one or several of the following features: (1) the presence of…

Generating realistic synthetic option prices requires implied volatility as an input, yet implied volatility is itself derived from observed option prices, creating a circular dependency that limits synthetic data for machine-learning and…