Related papers: On Quantum and Quantum-Inspired Maximum Likelihood…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible time series models in which the distributions of the observations depend on unobserved serially correlated states. The state-dependent distributions in HMMs are usually taken from some class of…
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…
Quantum Mechanics (QM) is a quantum probability theory based on the density matrix. The possibility of applying classical probability theory, which is based on the probability distribution function(PDF), to describe quantum systems is…
We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…
Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or…
This paper is concerned with the computational complexity of learning the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Although HMMs are some of the most widely used tools in sequential and time series modeling, they are cryptographically hard to learn in…
State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…
We study a new parametric approach for particular hidden stochastic models such as the Stochastic Volatility model. This method is based on contrast minimization and deconvolution. After proving consistency and asymptotic normality of the…
We analyze the estimation of a time dependent perturbation acting on a continuously monitored quantum system. We describe the temporal fluctuations of the perturbation by a Hidden Markov Model, and we combine quantum measurement theory and…
The stochastic theory of non-relativistic quantum mechanics presented here relies heavily upon the theory of stochastic processes, with its definitions, theorems and specific vocabulary as well. Its main hypothesis states indeed that the…
In this paper, we consider the filtering and smoothing recursions in nonparametric finite state space hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the parameters of the model are unknown and replaced by estimators. We provide an explicit and time…
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
The stochastic theory of relativistic quantum mechanics presented here is modelled on the one that has been proposed previously and that was claimed to be a promising substitute to the orthodox theory in the non-relativistic domain. So it…
Agents' heterogeneity is recognized as a driver mechanism for the persistence of financial volatility. We focus on the multiplicity of investment strategies' horizons, we embed this concept in a continuous time stochastic volatility…
This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates…
This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…
We propose DenseHMM - a modification of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that allows to learn dense representations of both the hidden states and the observables. Compared to the standard HMM, transition probabilities are not atomic but composed…
The continuous time stochastic process is a mainstream mathematical instrument modeling the random world with a wide range of applications involving finance, statistics, physics, and time series analysis, while the simulation and analysis…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state…