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The approach of causality based on physical laws and systems is revisited. The issue of "levels", the relevance to epidemiology and the definition of effects are particularly developed. Moreover it is argued that this approach that we call…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
Systems of stochastic particles evolving in a multi-well energy landscape and attracted to their barycenter is the prototypical example of mean-field process undergoing phase transitions: at low temperature, the corresponding mean-field…
We study a stochastic spatial epidemic model where the $N$ individuals carry two features: a position and an infection state, interact and move in $\R^d$. In this Markovian model, the evolution of the infection states are described with the…
The stochastic trajectories of molecules in living cells, as well as the dynamics in many other complex systems, often exhibit memory in their path over long periods of time. In addition, these systems can show dynamic heterogeneities due…
The problem of noise-induced escape from a metastable state arises in physics, chemistry, biology, systems engineering, and other areas. The problem is well understood when the underlying dynamics of the system obey detailed balance. When…
A straightforward analytical scheme is proposed for computing the long-time, asymptotic mean velocity and dispersivity (effective diffusivity) of a particle undergoing a discrete biased random walk on a periodic lattice amongst an array of…
Process discovery algorithms automatically extract process models from event logs, but high variability often results in complex and hard-to-understand models. To mitigate this issue, trace clustering techniques group process executions…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units,…
We present a novel approach for improving particle filters for multi-target tracking. The suggested approach is based on drift homotopy for stochastic differential equations. Drift homotopy is used to design a Markov Chain Monte Carlo step…
We analyze energy spreading for a system that features mixed chaotic phase-space, whose control parameters (or slow degrees of freedom) vary quasi-statically. For demonstration purpose we consider the restricted 3~body problem, where the…
As disorder strength increases in quantum many-body systems a new phase of matter, the so-called anybody localization, emerges across the whole spectrum. This transition is energy dependent, a phenomenon known as mobility edge, such that…
This is the third part of a series of studies that model the target trajectory, which describes the target state evolution over continuous time, as a sample path of a stochastic process (SP). By adopting a deterministic-stochastic…
It is understood that congestion in traffic can be interpreted in terms of the instability of the equation of dynamic motion. The evolution of a traffic system from an unstable or metastable state to a globally stable state bears a strong…
In the automotive industry, the sequence of vehicles to be produced is determined ahead of the production day. However, there are some vehicles, failed vehicles, that cannot be produced due to some reasons such as material shortage or paint…
Decision making in advanced driver assistance systems involves in general the estimated trajectories of the surrounding objects. Multiple object tracking refers to the process of estimating in real time these trajectories, leveraging for…
I present three models of plant--pathogen interactions. The models are stochastic and spatially explicit at the scale of individual plants. For each model, I use a version of pair approximation or moment closure along with a separation of…
Accurate multistep forecasting of node-level attributes on dynamic graphs is critical for applications ranging from financial trust networks to biological networks. Existing spatiotemporal graph neural networks typically assume a static…
Multiple sclerosis is an inflammatory autoimmune demyelinating disease that is characterized by lesions in the central nervous system. Typically, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is used for tracking disease progression. Automatic image…
The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…