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We study the tail behavior of regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits for algorithms that are asymptotically optimal in expectation. While minimizing expected regret is the classical objective, recent work shows that even such algorithms…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Subhodip Panda , Shubhada Agrawal

This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of quantile regression estimators in linear models, with a particular focus on polynomial regressors and robustness to heavy-tailed noise. Under independent and identically distributed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-09 Saïd Maanan , Azzouz Dermoune , Ahmed El Ghini

We derive exponential bounds on probabilities of large deviations for "light tail" martingales taking values in finite-dimensional normed spaces. Our primary emphasis is on the case where the bounds are dimension-independent or nearly so.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-31 Anatoli Juditsky , Arkadii S. Nemirovski

Regression quantiles have asymptotic variances that depend on the conditional densities of the response variable given regressors. This paper develops a new estimate of the asymptotic variance of regression quantiles that leads any…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-27 Juan Carlos Escanciano , Chuan Goh

We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-14 Krzysztof Zajkowski

We derive a new closed-form variance-adaptive confidence sequence (CS) for estimating the average conditional mean of a sequence of bounded random variables. Empirically, it yields the tightest closed-form CS we have found for tracking…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-25 Ben Chugg , Aaditya Ramdas

In this paper, we study the learning rate of generalized Bayes estimators in a general setting where the hypothesis class can be uncountable and have an irregular shape, the loss function can have heavy tails, and the optimal hypothesis may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Lam Si Tung Ho , Binh T. Nguyen , Vu Dinh , Duy Nguyen

We study the logistic bandit, in which rewards are binary with success probability $\exp(\beta a^\top \theta) / (1 + \exp(\beta a^\top \theta))$ and actions $a$ and coefficients $\theta$ are within the $d$-dimensional unit ball. While prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-14 Shi Dong , Tengyu Ma , Benjamin Van Roy

We establish a Bernstein-type inequality for a class of stochastic processes that include the classical geometrically $\phi$-mixing processes, Rio's generalization of these processes, as well as many time-discrete dynamical systems. Modulo…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-14 H. Hang , I. Steinwart

The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Anru R. Zhang , Yuchen Zhou

In this paper we revisited the classical problem of max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums in two dimensions. In opposite to the most papers in literature, we consider that there exists some interdependence between the primary random…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

We provide an estimator of the covariance matrix that achieves the optimal rate of convergence (up to constant factors) in the operator norm under two standard notions of data contamination: We allow the adversary to corrupt an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Pedro Abdalla , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

We prove Bernstein-type matrix concentration inequalities for linear combinations with matrix coefficients of binary random variables satisfying certain $\ell_\infty$-independence assumptions, complementing recent results by Kaufman, Kyng…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-14 Radosław Adamczak , Ioannis Kavvadias

Shape restricted regressions, including isotonic regression and concave regression as special cases, are studied using priors on Bernstein polynomials and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These priors have large supports, select only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 I-Shou Chang , Li-Chu Chien , Chao A. Hsiung , Chi-Chung Wen , Yuh-Jenn Wu

We derive in this article the exact non-asymptotical exponential and power estimates for self-normalized sums of centered independent random variables (r.v.) under natural norming. We will use also the theory of the so-called Grand Lebesgue…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-25 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

We revisit the classic regret-minimization problem in the stochastic multi-armed bandit setting when the arm-distributions are allowed to be heavy-tailed. Regret minimization has been well studied in simpler settings of either bounded…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Shubhada Agrawal , Sandeep Juneja , Wouter M. Koolen

In this paper we initiate a study of non parametric contextual bandits under shape constraints on the mean reward function. Specifically, we study a setting where the context is one dimensional, and the mean reward function is isotonic with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Sabyasachi Chatterjee , Subhabrata Sen

We prove that single-parameter natural exponential families with subexponential tails are self-concordant with polynomial-sized parameters. For subgaussian natural exponential families we establish an exact characterization of the growth…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Shuai Liu , Alex Ayoub , Flore Sentenac , Xiaoqi Tan , Csaba Szepesvári

Using the standard concepts of free random variables, we show that for a large class of nonhermitean random matrix models, the support of the eigenvalue distribution follows from their hermitean analogs using a conformal transformation. We…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-10-28 Romuald A. Janik , Maciej A. Nowak , Gabor Papp , Jochen Wambach , Ismail Zahed

This work introduces the minimax Laplace transform method, a modification of the cumulant-based matrix Laplace transform method developed in "User-friendly tail bounds for sums of random matrices" (arXiv:1004.4389v6) that yields both upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-22 Alex Gittens , Joel A. Tropp