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In this note we consider the stability of posterior measures occuring in Bayesian inference w.r.t. perturbations of the prior measure and the log-likelihood function. This extends the well-posedness analysis of Bayesian inverse problems. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-24 Björn Sprungk

In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-06 Alfredo Garbuno-Inigo , Tapio Helin , Franca Hoffmann , Bamdad Hosseini

Generalization error (also known as the out-of-sample error) measures how well the hypothesis learned from training data generalizes to previously unseen data. Proving tight generalization error bounds is a central question in statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Jian Li , Xuanyuan Luo , Mingda Qiao

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Tomoya Wakayama

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

We study expected generalization bounds for the Hierarchical Federated Learning (HFL) setup using Wasserstein distance. We introduce a generalized framework in which data is sampled hierarchically, and we model it with a multi-layered tree…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Dario Filatrella , Ragnar Thobaben , Mikael Skoglund

Minimising upper bounds on the population risk or the generalisation gap has been widely used in structural risk minimisation (SRM) -- this is in particular at the core of PAC-Bayesian learning. Despite its successes and unfailing surge of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-30 Paul Viallard , Maxime Haddouche , Umut Şimşekli , Benjamin Guedj

In recent years, inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning has attracted significant attention. Tempered or generalized posterior distributions are frequently employed as direct and effective solutions. Nonetheless, the underlying mechanisms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Yinsong Chen , Samson S. Yu , Zhong Li , Chee Peng Lim

Causal structure learning (CSL), a prominent technique for encoding cause-and-effect relationships among variables, through Bayesian Networks (BNs). Although recovering causal structure solely from data is a challenge, the integration of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Lyuzhou Chen , Taiyu Ban , Xiangyu Wang , Derui Lyu , Huanhuan Chen

Algorithm-dependent generalization error bounds are central to statistical learning theory. A learning algorithm may use a large hypothesis space, but the limited number of iterations controls its model capacity and generalization error.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-20 Wenlong Mou , Liwei Wang , Xiyu Zhai , Kai Zheng

In this paper we study properties of the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution arising in nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems. Our work is motivated by Schillings et al. (2020), where it is shown that in such a setting the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Tapio Helin , Remo Kretschmann

Establishing Lipschitz stability estimates is crucial for ensuring the mathematical robustness of neural network (NN) approximations in machine learning (ML)-based parameter estimation, particularly in physics-informed settings. In this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Mahadevan Ganesh , Stuart C. Hawkins , Darko Volkov

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now an established method for conducting approximate Bayesian inference in models where, due to the intractability of the likelihood function, exact Bayesian approaches are either infeasible or…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-12 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi

The Laplace approximation is a popular method for constructing a Gaussian approximation to the Bayesian posterior and thereby approximating the posterior mean and variance. But approximation quality is a concern. One might consider using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Mikołaj J. Kasprzak , Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick

Some machine learning applications require continual learning - where data comes in a sequence of datasets, each is used for training and then permanently discarded. From a Bayesian perspective, continual learning seems straightforward:…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-19 Sebastian Farquhar , Yarin Gal

We consider linear prediction with a convex Lipschitz loss, or more generally, stochastic convex optimization problems of generalized linear form, i.e.~where each instantaneous loss is a scalar convex function of a linear function. We show…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Idan Amir , Roi Livni , Nathan Srebro

Sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) has been extensively utilized in data-driven modeling to combat the issue of overfitting. While SBL excels in linear-in-parameter models, its direct applicability is limited in models where observations…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Nastaran Dabiran , Brandon Robinson , Rimple Sandhu , Mohammad Khalil , Chris L. Pettit , Dominique Poirel , Abhijit Sarkar

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now a well established method for performing approximate Bayesian parameter estimation for simulation-based models that do not possess a tractable likelihood function. BSL approximates an intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2019-10-04 Ziwen An , David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi

We examine the impact of learning Lipschitz continuous models in the context of model-based reinforcement learning. We provide a novel bound on multi-step prediction error of Lipschitz models where we quantify the error using the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-30 Kavosh Asadi , Dipendra Misra , Michael L. Littman

Modern regression analyses are often undermined by covariate measurement error, misspecification of the regression model, and misspecification of the measurement error distribution. We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Mengqi Chen , Charita Dellaporta , Thomas B. Berrett , Theodoros Damoulas
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