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This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-05 M. Hashem Pesaran , Cynthia Fan Yang

Logistic regression models are a popular and effective method to predict the probability of categorical response data. However inference for these models can become computationally prohibitive for large datasets. Here we adapt ideas from…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-25 Tom Whitaker , Boris Beranger , Scott A. Sisson

We propose a generative model and an inference scheme for epidemic processes on dynamic, adaptive contact networks. Network evolution is formulated as a link-Markovian process, which is then coupled to an individual-level stochastic SIR…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-07 Fan Bu , Allison E. Aiello , Jason Xu , Alexander Volfovsky

Regression models applied to network data where node attributes are the dependent variables poses a methodological challenge. As has been well studied, naive regression neither properly accounts for community structure, nor does it account…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-16 Riddhi Pratim Ghosh , Jukka-Pekka Onnela , Ian Barnett

We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-02-07 James N. Walker , Joshua V. Ross , Andrew J. Black

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, whether COVID-19 patients with high risks can be recovered or not depends, to a large extent, on how early they will be treated appropriately before irreversible consequences are caused to the patients by…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-01 Feng Zhou , Tao Chen , Baiying Lei

Stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks are widely used to capture intrinsic noise in cellular systems. The typical formulation of these models are based on Markov processes for which there is extensive research on efficient…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-03 Thomas P. Steele , David J. Warne

We address the problem of simulation and parameter inference for chemical reaction networks described by the chemical Langevin equation, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) representation of the dynamics of the chemical species. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-18 Petar Jovanovski , Andrew Golightly , Umberto Picchini , Massimiliano Tamborrino

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-07 Thomas A. Catanach , Huy D. Vo , Brian Munsky

For many stochastic models of interest in systems biology, such as those describing biochemical reaction networks, exact quantification of parameter uncertainty through statistical inference is intractable. Likelihood-free computational…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-10 David J. Warne , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Ben Swallow , David A. Rand , Giorgos Minas

Network inference approaches are now widely used in biological applications to probe regulatory relationships between molecular components such as genes or proteins. Many methods have been proposed for this setting, but the connections and…

Applications · Statistics 2014-06-03 Chris. J. Oates , Sach Mukherjee

A stochastic model for a chemical reaction network is embedded in a one-parameter family of models with species numbers and rate constants scaled by powers of the parameter. A systematic approach is developed for determining appropriate…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-09 Hye-Won Kang , Thomas G. Kurtz

Parameter sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool in the building and analysis of biochemical network models. For stochastic simulations, parameter sensitivity analysis can be computationally expensive, requiring multiple simulations for…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-04 Patrick B. Warren , Rosalind J. Allen

Estimating causal networks from biological data is a critical step in systems biology. When evaluating the inferred network, assessing the networks based on their intervention effects is particularly important for downstream probabilistic…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-18 Noriaki Sato , Marco Scutari , Shuichi Kawano , Rui Yamaguchi , Seiya Imoto

Stochastic fluctuations of molecule numbers are ubiquitous in biological systems. Important examples include gene expression and enzymatic processes in living cells. Such systems are typically modelled as chemical reaction networks whose…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-13 David Schnoerr , Guido Sanguinetti , Ramon Grima

We present a workflow for clinical data analysis that relies on Bayesian Structure Learning (BSL), an unsupervised learning approach, robust to noise and biases, that allows to incorporate prior medical knowledge into the learning process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Elisa Ferrari , Luna Gargani , Greta Barbieri , Lorenzo Ghiadoni , Francesco Faita , Davide Bacciu

The COVID-19 pandemic has had worldwide devastating effects on human lives, highlighting the need for tools to predict its development. Dynamics of such public-health threats can often be efficiently analysed through simple models that help…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-04 Pedro L. de Andres , Lucia de Andres-Bragado , Linard D. Hoessly

Stochastic reaction networks are mathematical models with a wide range of applications in biochemistry, ecology, and epidemiology, and are often complex to analyze. Except for some special cases, it is generally difficult to predict how the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Daniele Cappelletti , Giulio Cuniberti , Paola Siri

The paper addresses joint sparsity selection in the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix for high-dimensional multivariate regression models in the Bayesian paradigm. The selected sparsity…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Srijata Samanta , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis