Related papers: Bounding Conditional Value-at-Risk via Auxiliary D…
We extend the standard VAR to jointly model the dynamics of binary, censored and continuous variables, and develop an efficient estimation approach that scales well to high-dimensional settings. In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we…
PAC generalization bounds on the risk, when expressed in terms of the expected loss, are often insufficient to capture imbalances between subgroups in the data. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a new family of risk measures, called…
This paper investigates the use of retrospective approximation solution paradigm in solving risk-averse optimization problems effectively via importance sampling (IS). While IS serves as a prominent means for tackling the large sample…
We consider the problem of computing the Credit Value Adjustment ({CVA}) of a European option in presence of the Wrong Way Risk ({WWR}) in a default intensity setting. Namely we model the asset price evolution as solution to a linear…
Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…
Rerandomization utilizes modern computing ability to improve covariate balance while adhering to the randomization principle originally advocated by RA Fisher. Affinely invariant rerandomization has the ``Equal Percent Variance Reducing''…
We study risk-sensitive planning under partial observability using the dynamic risk measure Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (ICVaR). A policy evaluation algorithm for ICVaR is developed with finite-time performance guarantees that do not…
This paper introduces the notions of stability, ultimate boundedness, and positive invariance for stochastic systems in the view of risk. More specifically, those notions are defined in terms of the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk…
In this paper, we give a Breiman's theorem for conditional dependent random vector, where one component has a regularly-varying-tailed distribution with the index $\alpha\ge0$ and its slowly varying function satisfies a relaxed condition,…
(To appear in The American Statistician.) Distance covariance (Sz\'ekely, Rizzo, and Bakirov, 2007) is a fascinating recent notion, which is popular as a test for dependence of any type between random variables $X$ and $Y$. This approach…
Instrumental variables (IV) are a useful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. IV methods are well developed for uncensored outcomes, particularly for structural linear equation models, where simple…
Uncertainty modeling has become increasingly important in power system decision-making. The widely-used tractable uncertainty modeling method-chance constraints with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) approximation, can be overconservative…
We address imbalanced classification, the problem in which a label may have low marginal probability relative to other labels, by weighting losses according to the correct class. First, we examine the convergence rates of the expected…
The coefficient of variation (CV) is commonly used to measure relative dispersion. However, since it is based on the sample mean and standard deviation, outliers can adversely affect the CV. Additionally, for skewed distributions the mean…
This paper introduces the variational R\'enyi bound (VR) that extends traditional variational inference to R\'enyi's alpha-divergences. This new family of variational methods unifies a number of existing approaches, and enables a smooth…
Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional…
A key driver of Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is the possible dependency between exposure and counterparty credit risk, known as Wrong-Way Risk (WWR). At this time, addressing WWR in a both sound and tractable way remains challenging:…
We propose a family of variational approximations to Bayesian posterior distributions, called $\alpha$-VB, with provable statistical guarantees. The standard variational approximation is a special case of $\alpha$-VB with $\alpha=1$. When…
Modeling distributions of covariates, or density estimation, is a core challenge in unsupervised learning. However, the majority of work only considers the joint distribution, which has limited utility in practical situations. A more…
Social science research often hinges on the relationship between categorical variables and outcomes. We introduce CAVIAR, a novel method for embedding categorical variables that assume values in a high-dimensional ambient space but are…