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Many recent works in simulation-based inference (SBI) rely on deep generative models to approximate complex, high-dimensional posterior distributions. However, evaluating whether or not these approximations can be trusted remains a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-11 Julia Linhart , Alexandre Gramfort , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

Neural posterior estimation (NPE) and neural likelihood estimation (NLE) are machine learning approaches that provide accurate posterior, and likelihood, approximations in complex modeling scenarios, and in situations where conducting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-20 David T. Frazier , Ryan Kelly , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Warne

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

Computer simulations have proven a valuable tool for understanding complex phenomena across the sciences. However, the utility of simulators for modelling and forecasting purposes is often restricted by low data quality, as well as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-14 Daniel Ward , Patrick Cannon , Mark Beaumont , Matteo Fasiolo , Sebastian M Schmon

We introduce a powerful deep classifier two-sample test for high-dimensional data based on E-values, called E-value Classifier Two-Sample Test (E-C2ST). Our test combines ideas from existing work on split likelihood ratio tests and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-01 Teodora Pandeva , Tim Bakker , Christian A. Naesseth , Patrick Forré

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Jan Boelts , Cornelius Schröder , Jonas Beck , Jakob H. Macke , Michael Deistler , Daniel Gedon

The goal of two-sample tests is to assess whether two samples, $S_P \sim P^n$ and $S_Q \sim Q^m$, are drawn from the same distribution. Perhaps intriguingly, one relatively unexplored method to build two-sample tests is the use of binary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 David Lopez-Paz , Maxime Oquab

Modern simulation-based inference techniques use neural networks to solve inverse problems efficiently. One notable strategy is neural posterior estimation (NPE), wherein a neural network parameterizes a distribution to approximate the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-03-06 Alex Kolmus , Justin Janquart , Tomasz Baka , Twan van Laarhoven , Chris Van Den Broeck , Tom Heskes

Recent methods for learning unsupervised visual representations, dubbed contrastive learning, optimize the noise-contrastive estimation (NCE) bound on mutual information between two views of an image. NCE uses randomly sampled negative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-06 Mike Wu , Milan Mosse , Chengxu Zhuang , Daniel Yamins , Noah Goodman

Accurate null depth retrieval is critical in nulling interferometry. However, achieving accurate null depth calibration is challenging due to various noise sources, instrumental imperfections, and the complexity of real observational…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-14 Baoyi Zeng , Marc-Antoine Martinod , Denis Defrère

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-13 Justine Zeghal , François Lanusse , Alexandre Boucaud , Benjamin Remy , Eric Aubourg

Simulation-based inference (SBI) with neural posterior estimation (NPE) provides rapid X-ray spectral fitting in both Gaussian and Poisson regimes by learning approximate parameter posteriors from simulations. We investigate auto-encoders…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-22 Didier Barret , Simon Dupourqué

Noise Contrastive Estimation (NCE) is a powerful parameter estimation method for log-linear models, which avoids calculation of the partition function or its derivatives at each training step, a computationally demanding step in many cases.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-09-07 Zhuang Ma , Michael Collins

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Yifei Xiong , Xiliang Yang , Sanguo Zhang , Zhijian He

We recapitulate the Bayesian formulation of neural network based classifiers and show that, while sampling from the posterior does indeed lead to better generalisation than is obtained by standard optimisation of the cost function, even…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-09 Robert J. N. Baldock , Nicola Marzari

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter estimation for complex stochastic models with intractable likelihoods when model simulation is feasible. Neural posterior estimation (NPE) is a popular SBI approach that often achieves…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Ryan P. Kelly , David T. Frazier , David J. Warne , Christopher C. Drovandi

Hypothesis testing is an essential statistical method in psychology and the cognitive sciences. The problems of traditional null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) have been discussed widely, and among the proposed solutions to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-28 Riko Kelter

The radio astronomy community is adopting deep learning techniques to deal with the huge data volumes expected from the next-generation of radio observatories. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a principled way to model uncertainty in…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-11-15 Devina Mohan , Anna Scaife

Recent work has observed that one can outperform exact inference in Bayesian neural networks by tuning the "temperature" of the posterior on a validation set (the "cold posterior" effect). To help interpret this phenomenon, we argue that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-04 Ben Adlam , Jasper Snoek , Samuel L. Smith

Training quantized neural networks requires addressing the non-differentiable and discrete nature of the underlying optimization problem. To tackle this challenge, the straight-through estimator (STE) has become the most widely adopted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Halyun Jeong , Jack Xin , Penghang Yin
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