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We discover a theoretical connection between explanation estimation and distribution compression that significantly improves the approximation of feature attributions, importance, and effects. While the exact computation of various machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Hubert Baniecki , Giuseppe Casalicchio , Bernd Bischl , Przemyslaw Biecek

A recent trend in Bayesian research has been revisiting generalizations of the likelihood that enable Bayesian inference without requiring the specification of a model for the data generating mechanism. This paper focuses on a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-03 Antonio R. Linero

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-06 Umberto Picchini

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-04 Steven G. Xu , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich

Variational inference is an alternative estimation technique for Bayesian models. Recent work shows that variational methods provide consistent estimation via efficient, deterministic algorithms. Other tools, such as model selection using…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-01 Mark J. Meyer , Selina Carter , Elizabeth J. Malloy

Nonlinear mixed effects models have become a standard platform for analysis when data is in the form of continuous and repeated measurements of subjects from a population of interest, while temporal profiles of subjects commonly follow a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-04 Se Yoon Lee

Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-09 Maxwell H. Wang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Univariate and multivariate general linear regression models, subject to linear inequality constraints, arise in many scientific applications. The linear inequality restrictions on model parameters are often available from phenomenological…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-07 Solmaz Seifollahi , Kaniav Kamary , Hossein Bevrani

Covariate-specific treatment effects (CSTEs) represent heterogeneous treatment effects across subpopulations defined by certain selected covariates. In this article, we consider marginal structural models where CSTEs are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Peng Wu , Zhiqiang Tan , Wenjie Hu , Xiao-Hua Zhou

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Marvin Schmitt , Desi R. Ivanova , Daniel Habermann , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev

We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-12 Matteo Mogliani , Anna Simoni

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Pavel Izmailov

Recent developments in statistical regression methodology shift away from pure mean regression towards distributional regression models. One important strand thereof is that of conditional transformation models (CTMs). CTMs infer the entire…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-24 Manuel Carlan , Thomas Kneib , Nadja Klein

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-19 Gavin A. Whitaker , Andrew Golightly , Richard J. Boys , Chris Sherlock

The problem of joint estimation of multiple graphical models from high dimensional data has been studied in the statistics and machine learning literature, due to its importance in diverse fields including molecular biology, neuroscience…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-04 Peyman Jalali , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis

Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-13 Krikamol Muandet , Motonobu Kanagawa , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Sanparith Marukatat

Recent works have shown an interest in investigating the frequentist asymptotic properties of Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional linear models under sparsity constraints. However, there exists a gap in the literature regarding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Marion Naveau , Maud Delattre , Laure Sansonnet

The synthetic control method has become a widely popular tool to estimate causal effects with observational data. Despite this, inference for synthetic control methods remains challenging. Often, inferential results rely on linear factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Ignacio Martinez , Jaume Vives-i-Bastida

We consider the problem of selecting covariates in spatial linear models with Gaussian process errors. Penalized maximum likelihood estimation (PMLE) that enables simultaneous variable selection and parameter estimation is developed and,…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-24 Tingjin Chu , Jun Zhu , Haonan Wang

Popular statistical software provides Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for multilevel models or linear mixed models. However, it has been observed that the combination of statistical literature and software documentation has led to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-24 Sun-Joo Cho , Hao Wu , Matthew Naveiras
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