Related papers: Efficient Bayesian Inference for Discretely Observ…
Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) are graphical representations of multi-component continuous-time Markov processes as directed graphs. The edges in the network represent direct influences among components. The joint rate matrix of…
Bayesian inference via standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is too computationally intensive to handle large datasets, since the cost per step usually scales like $\Theta(n)$ in the number of data points $n$. We propose the…
We develop a computationally efficient framework for quasi-Bayesian inference based on linear moment conditions. The approach employs a delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC) algorithm that uses a surrogate target kernel and…
This paper applies probabilistic model checking techniques for discrete Markov chains to inference in Bayesian networks. We present a simple translation from Bayesian networks into tree-like Markov chains such that inference can be reduced…
There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…
Spectral subsampling MCMC was recently proposed to speed up Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for long stationary univariate time series by subsampling periodogram observations in the frequency domain. This article extends the approach to…
Posterior inference with an intractable likelihood is becoming an increasingly common task in scientific domains which rely on sophisticated computer simulations. Typically, these forward models do not admit tractable densities forcing…
Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…
Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed. Simulation-based inference…
This work introduces a Bayesian methodology for fitting large discrete graphical models with spike-and-slab priors to encode sparsity. We consider a quasi-likelihood approach that enables node-wise parallel computation resulting in reduced…
Sampling the parameters of high-dimensional Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) is a challenging problem with important applications in many fields of applied statistics. In this work a recently proposed type of non-reversible…
Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…
We present new methodologies for Bayesian inference on the rate parameters of a discretely observed continuous-time Markov jump processes with a countably infinite state space. The usual method of choice for inference, particle Markov chain…
We develop the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusions by allowing for jumps in instantaneous drift and…
Bayesian methods hold significant promise for improving the uncertainty quantification ability and robustness of deep neural network models. Recent research has seen the investigation of a number of approximate Bayesian inference methods…
We present a novel Bayesian inference tool that uses a neural network to parameterise efficient Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) proposals. The target distribution is first transformed into a diagonal, unit variance Gaussian by a series of…
Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…
Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…
Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…
Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…