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Structural equation modeling (SEM) and path analysis have long been central tools for studying complex causal relationships in the social and behavioral sciences, yet their reliance on parametric assumptions can lead to biased inference…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-03-10 Junjie Ma , Xiaoya Zhang , Guangye He , Yuting Han , Ting Ge , Feng Ji

Longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation (LTMLE) has very rarely been used to estimate dynamic treatment effects in the context of time-dependent confounding affected by prior treatment when faced with long follow-up times,…

Logistic regression is one of the most popular methods in binary classification, wherein estimation of model parameters is carried out by solving the maximum likelihood (ML) optimization problem, and the ML estimator is defined to be the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-23 Robert M. Freund , Paul Grigas , Rahul Mazumder

This paper is devoted to model selection in logistic regression. We extend the model selection principle introduced by Birg\'e and Massart (2001) to logistic regression model. This selection is done by using penalized maximum likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-01 Marius Kwemou , Marie-Luce Taupin , Anne-Sophie Tocquet

Network datasets typically exhibit certain types of statistical dependencies, such as within-dyad correlation, row and column heterogeneity, and third-order dependence patterns such as transitivity and clustering. The first two of these can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Peter D. Hoff

Developers using LLMs and LLM-based agents in their applications have provided plenty of anecdotal evidence that in-context-learning (ICL) is fragile. In this paper, we show that in addition to the quantity and quality of examples, the…

We present a computational motivation for restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation in linear mixed models using an expectation--maximization (EM) algorithm. At each iteration, maximum likelihood (ML) and REML solve the same…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-11 Andrew T. Karl

The standard approach to answering an identifiable causal-effect query (e.g., $P(Y|do(X)$) when given a causal diagram and observational data is to first generate an estimand, or probabilistic expression over the observable variables, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Anna Raichev , Alexander Ihler , Jin Tian , Rina Dechter

Robust inferential methods based on divergences measures have shown an appealing trade-off between efficiency and robustness in many different statistical models. In this paper, minimum density power divergence estimators (MDPDEs) for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-06 A. Felipe , M. Jaenada , P. Miranda , L. Pardo

Estimation of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) with non-nested random effects structures requires approximation of high-dimensional integrals. Many existing methods are tailored to the low-dimensional integrals produced by nested…

Computation · Statistics 2014-04-01 Andrew T. Karl , Yan Yang , Sharon L. Lohr

In this technical note we present a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for a previously studied target parameter that aims to transport an average treatment effect (ATE) on a clinical outcome in a source population to what the ATE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Mark van der Laan , Susan Gruber

Consider a set of categorical variables $\mathcal{P}$ where at least one, denoted by $Y$, is binary. The log-linear model that describes the counts in the resulting contingency table implies a specific logistic regression model, with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-04 Wei Jing , Michail Papathomas

This paper studies the generalization of the targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) framework to estimation of effects of time-varying interventions in settings where both interventions, covariates, and outcome can happen at…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Helene C. Rytgaard , Thomas A. Gerds , Mark J. van der Laan

Clustered data is ubiquitous in a variety of scientific fields. In this paper, we propose a flexible and interpretable modeling approach, called grouped heterogenous mixture modeling, for clustered data, which models cluster-wise…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Shonosuke Sugasawa

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs), via their induced flow maps, provide a powerful framework to parameterize invertible transformations for the purpose of representing complex probability distributions. While such models have achieved…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Youssef Marzouk , Zhi Ren , Sven Wang , Jakob Zech

The choice of free parameters in network models is subjective, since it depends on what topological properties are being monitored. However, we show that the Maximum Likelihood (ML) principle indicates a unique, statistically rigorous…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-08-07 Diego Garlaschelli , Maria I. Loffredo

Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-19 Yu Gu , Donglin Zeng , Gerardo Heiss , D. Y. Lin

Linear Mixed Effects (LME) models have been widely applied in clustered data analysis in many areas including marketing research, clinical trials, and biomedical studies. Inference can be conducted using maximum likelihood approach if…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Hao Chen , Lanshan Han , Alvin Lim

We propose Deep Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation (Deep LTMLE), a novel approach to estimate the counterfactual mean of outcome under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal problem settings. Our approach utilizes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-09 Toru Shirakawa , Yi Li , Yulun Wu , Sky Qiu , Yuxuan Li , Mingduo Zhao , Hiroyasu Iso , Mark van der Laan
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