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Determining the sample size of an experiment can be challenging, even more so when incorporating external information via a prior distribution. Such information is increasingly used to reduce the size of the control group in randomized…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-10 Beat Neuenschwander , Sebastian Weber , Heinz Schmidli , Anthony O'Hagan

The effective sample size (ESS) measures the informational value of a probability distribution in terms of an equivalent number of study participants. The ESS plays a crucial role in estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-31 Linke Li , Hawre Jalal , Anna Heath

With the robust uptick in the applications of Bayesian external data borrowing, eliciting a prior distribution with the proper amount of information becomes increasingly critical. The prior effective sample size (ESS) is an intuitive and…

We consider a Bayesian framework for estimating the sample size of a clinical trial. The new approach, called BESS, is built upon three pillars: Sample size of the trial, Evidence from the observed data, and Confidence of the final decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Dehua Bi , Yuan Ji

The Effective Sample Size (ESS) is an important measure of efficiency of Monte Carlo methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Importance Sampling (IS) techniques. In the IS context, an approximation $\widehat{ESS}$ of the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-27 L. Martino , V. Elvira , F. Louzada

The effective sample size (ESS) is widely used in sample-based simulation methods for assessing the quality of a Monte Carlo approximation of a given distribution and of related integrals. In this paper, we revisit the approximation of the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-04-14 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , Christian P. Robert

The logical and practical difficulties associated with research interpretation using P values and null hypothesis significance testing have been extensively documented. This paper describes an alternative, likelihood-based approach to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-21 Nicholas Adams , Gerard O'Reilly

Bayesian analysis plays a crucial role in estimating distribution of unknown parameters for given data and model. Due to the curse of dimensionality, it becomes difficult for high-dimensional problems, especially when multiple modes exist.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Zihan Liao , Binbin Li , Hua-Ping Wan

Estimating the effective sample size (ESS) is fundamental in Bayesian phylogenetic inference to properly account for autocorrelation in MCMC samples. While methods for continuous parameters are well established, the discrete and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-05 Jonathan Klawitter , Lars Berling , Jordan Douglas , Dong Xie , Alexei J. Drummond

This paper outlines a framework for quantifying the prior's contribution to posterior inference in the presence of prior-likelihood discordance, a broader concept than the usual notion of prior-likelihood conflict. We achieve this dual…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-08 Matthew Reimherr , Xiao-Li Meng , Dan L. Nicolae

We develop a new method for frequentist multiple testing with Bayesian prior information. Our procedure finds a new set of optimal p-value weights called the Bayes weights. Prior information is relevant to many multiple testing problems.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-03 Edgar Dobriban , Kristen Fortney , Stuart K. Kim , Art B. Owen

We distinguish two questions (i) how much information does the prior contain? and (ii) what is the effect of the prior? Several measures have been proposed for quantifying effective prior sample size, for example Clarke [1996] and Morita et…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-30 David E Jones , Robert N Trangucci , Yang Chen

In this paper, we propose considering an exact likelihood score (ELS) test for non-inferiority comparison and we derive its test-based confidence interval for the difference between two independent binomial proportions. The p-value for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Hassan Lakkis , Andrew Lakkis

The development of a new diagnostic test ideally follows a sequence of stages which, amongst other aims, evaluate technical performance. This includes an analytical validity study, a diagnostic accuracy study and an interventional clinical…

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

This article explains, and discusses the merits of, three approaches for analyzing the certainty with which statistical results can be extrapolated beyond the data gathered. Sometimes it may be possible to use more than one of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-03 Michael Wood

Survey data often arises from complex sampling designs, such as stratified or multistage sampling, with unequal inclusion probabilities. When sampling is informative, traditional inference methods yield biased estimators and poor coverage.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Snigdha Das , Dipankar Bandyopadhyay , Debdeep Pati

Aims: To propose a general sample size framework for developing or updating a clinical prediction model using any statistical or machine learning method, based on drawing samples from anticipated posterior distributions and targeting…

Randomized controlled clinical trials provide the gold standard for evidence generation in relation to the efficacy of a new treatment in medical research. Relevant information from previous studies may be desirable to incorporate in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-29 Lou E. Whitehead , James M. S. Wason , Oliver Sailer , Haiyan Zheng

The following zero-sum game between nature and a statistician blends Bayesian methods with frequentist methods such as p-values and confidence intervals. Nature chooses a posterior distribution consistent with a set of possible priors. At…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-19 David R. Bickel
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