Related papers: Structured linear factor models for tail dependenc…
Regular variation is often used as the starting point for modeling multivariate heavy-tailed data. A random vector is regularly varying if and only if its radial part $R$ is regularly varying and is asymptotically independent of the angular…
A notion of tail dependence based on operator regular variation is introduced for copulas, and the standard tail dependence used in the copula literature is included as a special case. The non-standard tail dependence with marginal power…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…
We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…
In this paper, we consider a simple estimator for tail dependence coefficients of a max-stable time series and show its asymptotic normality under a mild condition. The novelty of our result is that this condition does not involve mixing…
We show that the set of $d$-variate symmetric stable tail dependence functions, uniquely associated with exchangeable $d$-dimensional extreme-value copulas, is a simplex and determine its extremal boundary. The subset of elements which…
Conditional Kendall's tau is a measure of dependence between two random variables, conditionally on some covariates. We assume a regression-type relationship between conditional Kendall's tau and some covariates, in a parametric setting…
We study efficient algorithms for linear regression and covariance estimation in the absence of Gaussian assumptions on the underlying distributions of samples, making assumptions instead about only finitely-many moments. We focus on how…
Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…
In this paper, we examine two problems on applied probability, which are directly connected with the dependence in presence of heavy tails. The first problem, is related to max-sum equivalence of the randomly weighted sums in bi-variate set…
We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all…
We develop a criterion to certify whether causal effects are identifiable in linear structural equation models with latent variables. Linear structural equation models correspond to directed graphs whose nodes represent the random variables…
Causal dependence modelling of multivariate extremes is intended to improve our understanding of the relationships amongst variables associated with rare events. Regular variation provides a standard framework in the study of extremes. This…
We develop factor copula models for analysing the dependence among mixed continuous and discrete responses. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas that involve both observed and latent variables, hence they allow tail, asymmetric…
Correlation matrices are omnipresent in multivariate data analysis. When the number d of variables is large, the sample estimates of correlation matrices are typically noisy and conceal underlying dependence patterns. We consider the case…
A notoriously difficult challenge in extreme value theory is the choice of the number $k\ll n$, where $n$ is the total sample size, of extreme data points to consider for inference of tail quantities. Existing theoretical guarantees for…
We introduce a definition of long range dependence of random processes and fields on an (unbounded) index space $T\subseteq \R^d$ in terms of integrability of the covariance of indicators that a random function exceeds any given level. This…
Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…
Tail dependence refers to clustering of extreme events. In the context of financial risk management, the clustering of high-severity risks has a devastating effect on the well-being of firms and is thus of pivotal importance in risk…
This work studies applications and generalizations of a simple estimation technique that provides exponential concentration under heavy-tailed distributions, assuming only bounded low-order moments. We show that the technique can be used…