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Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-21 Alana Hough , Tony E. Wong

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-05-25 Valerio Lucarini , Frank Lunkeit , Francesco Ragone

Earth Global and regional effective thermal "conductance" G(eff) (in W/(m^2 C) and often labeled lambda in climate research) and the related Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) are evaluated by applying a modified version of the Energy…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-11 Michael D. Mill

This paper is a continuation of a study by Douglass and Clader. We extend the analysis through December 2003 using the latest updates of the observational temperature and solar irradiance data sets in addition to a new volcano proxy data…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 David H. Douglass , B. David Clader , Robert S. Knox

Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-22 Paolo Giani , Arlene M. Fiore , Glenn Flierl , Raffaele Ferrari , Noelle E. Selin

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

An increasing number of electric loads, such as hydrogen producers or data centers, can be characterized as carbon-sensitive, meaning that they are willing to adapt the timing and/or location of their electricity usage in order to minimize…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-16 Wenqian Jiang , Olivier Huber , Michael C. Ferris , Line Roald

Climate Change is an incredibly complicated problem that humanity faces. When many variables interact with each other, it can be difficult for humans to grasp the causes and effects of the very large-scale problem of climate change. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Theodore Wolf

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 {\deg}C; high,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-30 Nicola Scafetta

Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of…

Against the backdrop of ongoing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, accurate prediction of enterprise carbon emission trends constitutes an essential foundation for energy structure optimization and low-carbon transformation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Zitao Hong , Zhen Peng , Xueping Liu

Climate models are essential to understand and project climate change, yet long-standing biases and uncertainties in their projections remain. This is largely associated with the representation of subgrid-scale processes, particularly…

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full…

System identification method (SIM) was used to evaluate the Earth equilibrium climate sensitivity. According to our simulations, the equilibrium climate sensitivity was found to be between 2 deg C and 7 deg C. Analysis of the changes in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-16 Alexei V Karnaukhov , Sergei F Lyuksyutov , Artem V Aliakin , Mikhail E Prokhorov , Sergei I Blinnikov

The thermodynamic uncertainty relation originally proven for systems driven into a non-equilibrium steady state (NESS) allows one to infer the total entropy production rate by observing any current in the system. This kind of inference…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-23 Timur Koyuk , Udo Seifert

The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Wuqiushi Yao , Or Hadas , Yohai Kaspi

The CMIP global climate models (GCMs) assess that nearly 100% of global surface warming observed between 1850-1900 and 2011-2020 is attributable to anthropogenic drivers like greenhouse gas emissions. These models also generate future…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-06-18 Nicola Scafetta

The temperature in the transient climate response is lower than the equilibrium temperature for the same amount of forcing. The degree of disequilibrium is not constant in time and depends on various climate parameters. We derive intuition…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-03 Boriana Chtirkova

In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-05-29 Alka Yadav , Sourish Das , Anirban Chakraborti

Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-04-06 Timothy J. Garrett