Related papers: Assessing continuous common-shock risk through mat…
We introduce a novel class of bivariate common-shock discrete phase-type (CDPH) distributions to describe dependencies in loss modeling, with an emphasis on those induced by common shocks. By constructing two jointly evolving terminating…
In this paper we introduce a bivariate distribution on $\mathbb{R}_{+} \times \mathbb{N}$ arising from a single underlying Markov jump process. The marginal distributions are phase-type and discrete phase-type distributed, respectively,…
In this paper, the recurrent events that can occur more than one over the follow-up time have been modeled by phase-type distributions. We use the finite-state continuous-time Markov process with multi states for patients with recurrent…
We consider continuous time risk processes in which the claim sizes are dependent and non-identically distributed phase-type distributions. The class of distributions we propose is easy to characterize and allows to incorporate the…
We develop an approach to time-consistent risk evaluation of continuous-time processes in Markov systems. Our analysis is based on dual representation of coherent risk measures, differentiability concepts for multivalued mappings, and a…
We propose a novel framework of estimating systemic risk measures and risk allocations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We consider a class of allocations whose jth component can be written as some risk measure of the jth…
We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…
Phase-type (PH) distributions are a popular tool for the analysis of univariate risks in numerous actuarial applications. Their multivariate counterparts (MPH$^\ast$), however, have not seen such a proliferation, due to lack of explicit…
Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…
In the last years, many authors studied a class of continuous time semi-Markov processes obtained by time-changing Markov processes by hitting times of independent subordinators. Such processes are governed by integro-differential…
We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
In this paper, we demonstrate through the use of matrix calculus a transparent analysis of fractional inhomogeneous Markov models for life insurance where transition matrices commute. The resulting formulae are intuitive matrix…
This paper addresses the task of modeling severity losses using segmentation when the data distribution does not fall into the usual regression frameworks. This situation is not uncommon in lines of business such as third-party liability…
For controlled discrete-time stochastic processes we introduce a new class of dynamic risk measures, which we call process-based. Their main features are that they measure risk of processes that are functions of the history of a base…
Products between phase-type distributed random variables and any independent, positive and continuous random variable are studied. Their asymptotic properties are established, and an expectation-maximization algorithm for their effective…
Continuous-time Markov chains are used to model stochastic systems where transitions can occur at irregular times, e.g., birth-death processes, chemical reaction networks, population dynamics, and gene regulatory networks. We develop a…
We propose a multivariate framework for modeling dependent default times that extends the classical Cox process by incorporating both common and idiosyncratic shocks. Our construction uses c\`adl\`ag, increasing processes to model…
MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…
We introduce a multivariate hidden Markov model to jointly cluster time-series observations with different support, i.e. circular and linear. Relying on the general projected normal distribution, our approach allows for bimodal and/or…