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Measuring the accuracy of cross-sectional predictions is a subjective problem. Generally, this problem is avoided. In contrast, this paper confronts subjectivity up front by eliciting an impartial decision-maker's preferences. These…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Charles D. Coleman

A loss function measures the discrepancy between the true values and their estimated fits, for a given instance of data. In classification problems, a loss function is said to be proper if a minimizer of the expected loss is the true…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-01-03 Amichai Painsky , Gregory W. Wornell

Statistical decision problems lie at the heart of statistical machine learning. The simplest problems are binary and multiclass classification and class probability estimation. Central to their definition is the choice of loss function,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Robert C. Williamson , Zac Cranko

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

A loss function measures the discrepancy between the true values (observations) and their estimated fits, for a given instance of data. A loss function is said to be proper (unbiased, Fisher consistent) if the fits are defined over a unit…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-05-11 Amichai Painsky , Gregory W. Wornell

All machine learning algorithms use a loss, cost, utility or reward function to encode the learning objective and oversee the learning process. This function that supervises learning is a frequently unrecognized hyperparameter that…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Mathew Mithra Noel , Arindam Banerjee , Yug Oswal , Geraldine Bessie Amali D , Venkataraman Muthiah-Nakarajan

Loss functions are at the heart of deep learning, shaping how models learn and perform across diverse tasks. They are used to quantify the difference between predicted outputs and ground truth labels, guiding the optimization process to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Omar Elharrouss , Yasir Mahmood , Yassine Bechqito , Mohamed Adel Serhani , Elarbi Badidi , Jamal Riffi , Hamid Tairi

The study of a machine learning problem is in many ways is difficult to separate from the study of the loss function being used. One avenue of inquiry has been to look at these loss functions in terms of their properties as scoring rules…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Zac Cranko , Robert C. Williamson , Richard Nock

We study the problem of multiset prediction. The goal of multiset prediction is to train a predictor that maps an input to a multiset consisting of multiple items. Unlike existing problems in supervised learning, such as classification,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-29 Sean Welleck , Zixin Yao , Yu Gai , Jialin Mao , Zheng Zhang , Kyunghyun Cho

We study loss functions that measure the accuracy of a prediction based on multiple data points simultaneously. To our knowledge, such loss functions have not been studied before in the area of property elicitation or in machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-06 Sebastian Casalaina-Martin , Rafael Frongillo , Tom Morgan , Bo Waggoner

In this paper, we provide analytic expressions for the first-order loss function, the complementary loss function and the second-order loss function for several probability distributions. These loss functions are important functions in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Steven R. Pauly

The standard loss functions used in the literature on probabilistic prediction are the log loss function, the Brier loss function, and the spherical loss function; however, any computable proper loss function can be used for comparison of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-06-30 Vladimir Vovk

Cross-entropy is a widely used loss function in applications. It coincides with the logistic loss applied to the outputs of a neural network, when the softmax is used. But, what guarantees can we rely on when using cross-entropy as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Anqi Mao , Mehryar Mohri , Yutao Zhong

Most state-of-the-art machine learning techniques revolve around the optimisation of loss functions. Defining appropriate loss functions is therefore critical to successfully solving problems in this field. In this survey, we present a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Lorenzo Ciampiconi , Adam Elwood , Marco Leonardi , Ashraf Mohamed , Alessandro Rozza

We consider supervised learning problems in which set predictions provide explicit uncertainty estimates. Using Choquet integrals (a.k.a. Lov{\'a}sz extensions), we propose a convex loss function for nondecreasing subset-valued functions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Francis Bach

Level-based and share-based loss functions are asymptotically equivalent if, in the limit, their averages converge almost surely to a constant ratio. These loss functions take a target value and its realization as arguments and are often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-20 Charles D. Coleman

This work proposes a new loss function targeting classification problems, utilizing a source of information overlooked by cross entropy loss. First, we derive a series of the tightest upper and lower bounds for the probability of a random…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Ali Ghobadzadeh , Amir Lashkari

Loss functions are widely used to compare several competing forecasts. However, forecast comparisons are often based on mismeasured proxy variables for the true target. We introduce the concept of exact robustness to measurement error for…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-22 Yannick Hoga , Timo Dimitriadis

Algorithms in machine learning and AI do critically depend on at least three key components: (i) the risk function, which is the expectation of the loss function, (ii) the function space, which is often called the hypothesis space, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Lena Helgerth , Andreas Christmann

Causal machine-learning is about predicting the net-effect (true-lift) of treatments. Given the data of a treatment group and a control group, it is similar to a standard supervised-learning problem. Unfortunately, there is no similarly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-06 I-Sheng Yang
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