Related papers: Change point detection in ERA5 ground temperature …
Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…
As both a central task in Remote Sensing and a common problem in many other situations involving time series data, change point detection boasts a thorough and well-documented history of study. However, the treatment of missing data and…
Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes…
We propose a grid-based methodology for online changepoint detection that allows offline changepoint tests to be applied to sequentially observed data. The methodology achieves low update and storage costs by testing for changepoints over a…
Time-reversibility is a crucial feature of many time series models, while time-irreversibility is the rule rather than the exception in real-life data. Testing the null hypothesis of time-reversibilty, therefore, should be an important step…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
The two main drivers of climate change on sub-Milankovic time scales are re-assessed by means of a multiple regression analysis. Evaluating linear combinations of the logarithm of carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa-index as…
Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…
We investigate the normal mode spectrum of a trapped ion chain at the symmetry-breaking linear to zigzag transition and at finite temperatures. For this purpose we modulate the amplitude of the Doppler cooling laser in order to excite and…
Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce an ensemble of forecasts. Despite of large improvements over the last few decades, they still tend to exhibit systematic bias and dispersion…
Change point detection (CPD) aims to locate abrupt property changes in time series data. Recent CPD methods demonstrated the potential of using deep learning techniques, but often lack the ability to identify more subtle changes in the…
Many time series problems feature epidemic changes - segments where a parameter deviates from a background baseline. The number and location of such changes can be estimated in a principled way by existing detection methods, providing that…
Thermocouples are in widespread use in industry, but they are particularly susceptible to calibration drift in harsh environments. Self-validating thermocouples aim to address this issue by using a miniature phase-change cell (fixed-point)…
Classical assessments of trends in gridded temperature data perform independent evaluations across the grid, thus, ignoring spatial correlations in the trend estimates. In particular, this affects assessments of trend significance as…
The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are counted among the most destructive phenomena that can be found in nature. Every year, globally an average of 90 TCs occur over tropical waters, and global warming is making them stronger, larger and more…
Many time series exhibit changes both in level and in variability. Generally, it is more important to detect a change in the level, and changing or smoothly evolving variability can confound existing tests. This paper develops a framework…
Various regions in the Northern Hemispheric midlatitudes have seen pronounced trends in upper-atmosphere summer circulation and surface temperature extremes over recent decades (since 1979). Several of these regional trends lie outside the…
In the present paper we address the real-time detection problem of a change-point in the coefficients of a linear model with the possibility that the model errors are asymmetrical and that the explanatory variables number is large. We build…
High resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA Climatologies at high resolution for the earths land surface areas data of downscaled…