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We investigate the cold posterior effect through the lens of PAC-Bayes generalization bounds. We argue that in the non-asymptotic setting, when the number of training samples is (relatively) small, discussions of the cold posterior effect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Konstantinos Pitas , Julyan Arbel

Data augmentation is one of the most widely used techniques to improve generalization in modern machine learning, often justified by its ability to promote invariance to label-irrelevant transformations. However, its theoretical role…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Abdelali Bouyahia , Frédéric LeBlanc , Mario Marchand

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Jeong Eun Lee , Sitong Liu , Geoff K. Nicholls

Machine unlearning refers to mechanisms that can remove the influence of a subset of training data upon request from a trained model without incurring the cost of re-training from scratch. This paper develops a unified PAC-Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-02 Sharu Theresa Jose , Osvaldo Simeone

This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-16 François Laviolette , Emilie Morvant , Liva Ralaivola , Jean-Francis Roy

We present algorithms for estimating the forward reachable set of a dynamical system using only a finite collection of independent and identically distributed samples. The produced estimate is the sublevel set of a function called an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-21 Alex Devonport , Forest Yang , Laurent El Ghaoui , Murat Arcak

To generalize deepfake detectors to future unseen forgeries, most existing methods attempt to simulate the dynamically evolving forgery types using available source domain data. However, predicting an unbounded set of future manipulations…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Ming-Hui Liu , Harry Cheng , Xin Luo , Xin-Shun Xu , Mohan S. Kankanhalli

We propose the first general PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for adversarial robustness, that estimate, at test time, how much a model will be invariant to imperceptible perturbations in the input. Instead of deriving a worst-case…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Paul Viallard , Guillaume Vidot , Amaury Habrard , Emilie Morvant

We propose a new PAC-Bayesian bound and a way of constructing a hypothesis space, so that the bound is convex in the posterior distribution and also convex in a trade-off parameter between empirical performance of the posterior distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-25 Niklas Thiemann , Christian Igel , Olivier Wintenberger , Yevgeny Seldin

Virtually any model we use in machine learning to make predictions does not perfectly represent reality. So, most of the learning happens under model misspecification. In this work, we present a novel analysis of the generalization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Andres R. Masegosa

Various approaches have been developed to upper bound the generalization error of a supervised learning algorithm. However, existing bounds are often loose and even vacuous when evaluated in practice. As a result, they may fail to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Gholamali Aminian , Yuheng Bu , Laura Toni , Miguel R. D. Rodrigues , Gregory W. Wornell

For supervised learning models, the analysis of generalization ability (generalizability) is vital because the generalizability expresses how well a model will perform on unseen data. Traditional generalization methods, such as the VC…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Shuyue Guan , Murray Loew

We present an information-theoretic framework for bounding the number of labeled samples needed to train a classifier in a parametric Bayesian setting. We derive bounds on the average $L_p$ distance between the learned classifier and the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-11-20 Matthew Nokleby , Ahmad Beirami , Robert Calderbank

Analysing statistical properties of neural networks is a central topic in statistics and machine learning. However, most results in the literature focus on the properties of the neural network minimizing the training error. The goal of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-04 Laura Tinsi , Arnak S. Dalalyan

Bayesian coresets speed up posterior inference in the large-scale data regime by approximating the full-data log-likelihood function with a surrogate log-likelihood based on a small, weighted subset of the data. But while Bayesian coresets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-18 Trevor Campbell

This paper analyzes a popular computational framework to solve infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems, discretizing the prior and the forward model in a finite-dimensional weighted inner product space. We demonstrate the benefit of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-22 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Nathan Waniorek

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Hua Xu , Julián D. Arias-Londoño , Juan I. Godino-Llorente

Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) bounds are widely used to derive probabilistic guarantees for the generalisation of machine learning models. They highlight the components of the model which contribute to its generalisation capacity.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Thomas Walker , Alessio Lomuscio

We study the Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization in machine learning and propose a general framework that establishes information-theoretic generalization bounds. Our framework interpolates freely between Integral Probability Metric…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Wenliang Liu , Guanding Yu , Lele Wang , Renjie Liao

In this paper, we investigate the question: Given a small number of datapoints, for example N = 30, how tight can PAC-Bayes and test set bounds be made? For such small datasets, test set bounds adversely affect generalisation performance by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-14 Andrew Y. K. Foong , Wessel P. Bruinsma , David R. Burt , Richard E. Turner
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