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This work presents a probabilistic scheme for solving semilinear nonlocal diffusion equations with volume constraints and integrable kernels. The nonlocal model of interest is defined by a time-dependent semilinear partial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Minglei Yang , Guannan Zhang , Diego Del-Castillo-Negrete , Yanzhao Cao

In this article we consider a Monte Carlo-based method to filter partially observed diffusions observed at regular and discrete times. Given access only to Euler discretizations of the diffusion process, we present a new procedure which can…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-12 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Fangyuan Yu

To sample from a general target distribution $p_*\propto e^{-f_*}$ beyond the isoperimetric condition, Huang et al. (2023) proposed to perform sampling through reverse diffusion, giving rise to Diffusion-based Monte Carlo (DMC).…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-15 Xunpeng Huang , Difan Zou , Hanze Dong , Yian Ma , Tong Zhang

In this article, an overview of Bayesian methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions of nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamic systems is presented. The focus is mainly laid on sequential Monte Carlo methods, which are based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-28 Konstantinos E. Tatsis , Vasilis K. Dertimanis , Eleni N. Chatzi

Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Prakhar Verma , Vincent Adam , Arno Solin

We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to estimate the expectation of the smallest eigenvalue of a stochastic convection-diffusion operator with random coefficients. The MLMC method is based on a sequence of finite element…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Tiangang Cui , Hans De Sterck , Alexander D. Gilbert , Stanislav Polishchuk , Robert Scheichl

In this article we design a novel quasi-regression Monte Carlo algorithm in order to approximate the solution of discrete time backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), and we analyze the convergence of the proposed method. The…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-08-01 E. Gobet , J. G. López-Salas , C. Vázquez

We present a stochastic method for efficiently computing the solution of time-fractional partial differential equations (fPDEs) that model anomalous diffusion problems of the subdiffusive type. After discretizing the fPDE in space, the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Nicolas L. Guidotti , Juan Acebrón , José Monteiro

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Deep Ensemble (DE) approach is a straightforward technique used to enhance the performance of deep neural networks by training them from different initial points, converging towards various local optima. However, a limitation of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Hyunsu Kim , Jongmin Yoon , Juho Lee

Monte Carlo sampling has become a major vehicle for approximate inference in Bayesian networks. In this paper, we investigate a family of related simulation approaches, known collectively as quasi-Monte Carlo methods based on deterministic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Jian Cheng , Marek J. Druzdzel

We present a novel multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating quantities of interest for stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Drawing inspiration from [Giles and Szpruch: Antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo estimation for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-15 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Andreas Stein

McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs) describe systems whose dynamics depend on both individual states and the population distribution, and they arise widely in neuroscience, finance, and epidemiology. In many…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-21 Ning Ning , Amin Wu

We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Martin Jørgensen , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Hugh Salimbeni

In this paper, we propose stochastic structure-preserving schemes to compute the effective diffusivity for particles moving in random flows. We first introduce the motion of particles using the Lagrangian formulation, which is modeled by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-24 Junlong Lyu , Zhongjian Wang , Jack Xin , Zhiwen Zhang

We study statistical inference for small-noise-perturbed multiscale dynamical systems under the assumption that we observe a single time series from the slow process only. We construct estimators for both averaging and homogenization…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-13 Siragan Gailus , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Multilevel sampling methods, such as multilevel and multifidelity Monte Carlo, multilevel stochastic collocation, or delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo, have become standard uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools for a wide class of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Josef Martínek , Erin Carson , Robert Scheichl

We build on auto-encoding sequential Monte Carlo (AESMC): a method for model and proposal learning based on maximizing the lower bound to the log marginal likelihood in a broad family of structured probabilistic models. Our approach relies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-06 Tuan Anh Le , Maximilian Igl , Tom Rainforth , Tom Jin , Frank Wood

Parameter inference for stochastic differential equations is challenging due to the presence of a latent diffusion process. Working with an Euler-Maruyama discretisation for the diffusion, we use variational inference to jointly learn the…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-15 Thomas Ryder , Andrew Golightly , A. Stephen McGough , Dennis Prangle

The mean field limits of systems of interacting diffusions (also called stochastic interacting particle systems (SIPS)) have been intensively studied since McKean \cite{mckean1966class}. The interacting diffusions pave a way to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Lukasz Szpruch , Shuren Tan , Alvin Tse