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Confidence intervals are central to statistical inference as a tool to evaluate the type I error risk at a given significance level. We devise a method to construct confidence intervals using a single run of a permutation test. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Niels Lundtorp Olsen

This paper is about variable selection with the random forests algorithm in presence of correlated predictors. In high-dimensional regression or classification frameworks, variable selection is a difficult task, that becomes even more…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-19 Baptiste Gregorutti , Bertrand Michel , Philippe Saint-Pierre

Survival random forest is a popular machine learning tool for modeling censored survival data. However, there is currently no statistically valid and computationally feasible approach for estimating its confidence band. This paper proposes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-27 Sarah Elizabeth Formentini , Wei Liang , Ruoqing Zhu

We propose a modification that corrects for split-improvement variable importance measures in Random Forests and other tree-based methods. These methods have been shown to be biased towards increasing the importance of features with more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-25 Zhengze Zhou , Giles Hooker

The interplay between missing data and model uncertainty -- two classic statistical problems -- leads to primary questions that we formally address from an objective Bayesian perspective. For the general regression problem, we discuss the…

One advantage of decision tree based methods like random forests is their ability to natively handle categorical predictors without having to first transform them (e.g., by using feature engineering techniques). However, in this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Timothy C. Au

This paper tackles the problem of constructing a non-parametric predictor when the latent variables are given with incomplete information. The convenient predictor for this task is the random forest algorithm in conjunction to the so-called…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-01 Irving Gómez-Méndez , Emilien Joly

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity widely informs treatment decision making. At the moment, much emphasis is placed on the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect via flexible machine learning algorithms. While these…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-07 Lihua Lei , Emmanuel J. Candès

This work proposes a non-iterative strategy for missing value imputations which is guided by similarity between observations, but instead of explicitly determining distances or nearest neighbors, it assigns observations to overlapping…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-25 David Cortes

Random forests is a state-of-the-art supervised machine learning method which behaves well in high-dimensional settings although some limitations may happen when $p$, the number of predictors, is much larger than the number of observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-01 Louis Capitaine , Robin Genuer , Rodolphe Thiébaut

Processed data are insightful, and crude data are obtuse. A serious threat to data reliability is missing values. Such data leads to inaccurate analysis and wrong predictions. We propose an efficient technique to impute the missing value in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-02 Prateek Mishra , Kumar Divya Mani , Prashant Johri , Dikhsa Arya

Confidence interval procedures used in low dimensional settings are often inappropriate for high dimensional applications. When a large number of parameters are estimated, marginal confidence intervals associated with the most significant…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-24 Jean Morrison , Noah Simon

The Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a recently introduced Random Forest algorithm to estimate multivariate conditional distributions. Due to its general estimation procedure, it can be employed to estimate a wide range of targets such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Jeffrey Näf , Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Data analysis and machine learning have become an integrative part of the modern scientific methodology, offering automated procedures for the prediction of a phenomenon based on past observations, unraveling underlying patterns in data and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-04 Gilles Louppe

Missing values are prevalent across various fields, posing challenges for training and deploying predictive models. In this context, imputation is a common practice, driven by the hope that accurate imputations will enhance predictions.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Marine Le Morvan , Gaël Varoquaux

The issue of estimating residual variance in regression models has experienced relatively little attention in the machine learning community. However, the estimate is of primary interest in many practical applications, e.g. as a primary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-18 Burim Ramosaj , Markus Pauly

In statistical inference, confidence set procedures are typically evaluated based on their validity and width properties. Even when procedures achieve rate-optimal widths, confidence sets can still be excessively wide in practice due to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Kenta Takatsu

In real-world applications, we can encounter situations when a well-trained model has to be used to predict from a damaged dataset. The damage caused by missing or corrupted values can be either on the level of individual instances or on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-12 Magda Friedjungová , Daniel Vašata , Marcel Jiřina

The robust Wald confidence interval (CI) for the Cox model is commonly used when the model may be misspecified or when weights are applied. However it can perform poorly when there are few events in one or both treatment groups, as may…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Yongwu Shao , Xu Guo

Variable importance assessment has become a crucial step in machine-learning applications when using complex learners, such as deep neural networks, on large-scale data. Removal-based importance assessment is currently the reference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Ahmad Chamma , Denis A. Engemann , Bertrand Thirion