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Subseasonal forecasting -- predicting temperature and precipitation 2 to 6 weeks ahead -- is critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Recent international research efforts have advanced…
Wind power forecasting is essential for managing daily operations at wind farms and enabling market operators to manage power uncertainty effectively in demand planning. This paper explores advanced cross-temporal forecasting models and…
A primary goal of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project is to provide rapidly updating probabilistic guidance to human forecasters for short-term (e.g., 0-3 h) severe weather forecasts.…
High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element…
Flight delays due to holding maneuvers are a critical and costly phenomenon in aviation, driven by the need to manage air traffic congestion and ensure safety. Holding maneuvers occur when aircraft are instructed to circle in designated…
The forecast on a time scale of 1 or 2 hours is crucial for all kind of new generation facilities (ELTs) instrumentation supported by the adaptive optics that will be mainly operated in Service Mode. In a recent study (Masciadri et al.…
Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…
Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.…
The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre was founded in 2014 and part of its remit is a daily Space Weather Technical Forecast to help the UK build resilience to space weather impacts; guidance includes four day geo-magnetic storm…
The cost of delays was estimated as 33 billion US dollars only in 2019 for the US National Airspace System, a peak value following a growth trend in past years. Aiming to address this huge inefficiency, we designed and developed a novel…
Stationarity transformations are standard preprocessing in time series forecasting, yet their actual impact on accuracy across different non-stationarity types and model families has received little controlled evaluation. We construct…
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is a convection-allowing model used in operational weather forecasting across the contiguous United States (CONUS). To provide a computationally efficient alternative, we introduce HRRRCast, a…
Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…
The widespread utilisation of grid-integrated wind electricity necessitates accurate and reliable wind speed forecasting to ensure stable grid and quality power. Machine learning algorithm based wind speed forecasting models are getting…
Small-area precipitation forecasts support real-time decisions for reservoir operation, irrigation planning, drought monitoring, and flash-flood response. Operational value depends not only on point accuracy, but also on calibrated…
Current solar flare predictions often lack precise quantification of their reliability, resulting in frequent false alarms, particularly when dealing with datasets skewed towards extreme events. To improve the trustworthiness of space…
Multi-step-ahead forecasts are often updated as new observations become available, since shorter forecast horizons typically improve forecast quality. However, such improvements come at the cost of forecast instability, i.e., variability in…
This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…
With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and…