Related papers: Impact of Forecast Stability on Navigational Contr…
Contrails account for a large portion of aviation's contribution to anthropogenic climate change. Navigational contrail avoidance is a promising solution to mitigate the warming caused by contrails. Prior trials testing navigational…
Persistent contrails make up a large fraction of aviation's contribution to global warming. We describe a scalable, automated detection and matching (ADM) system to determine from satellite data whether a flight has made a persistent…
The environmental impact of aviation has been a focus of significant research for several decades. While there is a broad consensus among stakeholders on reducing carbon emissions, leading to efforts to improve route efficiency in air…
Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…
Traditional time series forecasting methods optimize for accuracy alone. This objective neglects temporal consistency, in other words, how consistently a model predicts the same future event as the forecast origin changes. We introduce the…
Aviation's climate impact includes not only CO2 emissions but also significant non-CO2 effects, especially from contrails. These ice clouds can alter Earth's radiative balance, potentially rivaling the warming effect of aviation CO2.…
Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs) can have devastating consequences such as floods and landslides, posing a great threat to society and the economy. Predicting such events long in advance can support the mitigation of negative impacts.…
The oceans play a fundamental role in Earth's climate system, redistributing heat and influencing global and regional climate variability and predictability across weather and climate timescales. The benefits of ocean-atmosphere coupling…
Probabilistic weather forecasts from ensemble systems require statistical postprocessing to yield calibrated and sharp predictive distributions. This paper presents an area-covering postprocessing method for ensemble precipitation…
Airline operations are subject to many uncertainties, such as weather, varying demand, maintenance events, congestion, etc. Large amounts of information are currently ignored due to difficulties in processing big data sets. We explore the…
Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable. We reformulate wind…
An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…
We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…
Significant wave height is one of the most important parameters characterizing ocean waves, and accurate numerical ocean wave forecasting is crucial for coastal protection and shipping. However, due to the randomness and nonlinearity of the…
In a growing renewable based energy system, accurate and reliable wind power forecasts are crucial for grid stability, balancing supply and demand and market risk management. Even though short-term weather forecasts have been thoroughly…
Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…
Reanalyses such as ERA5 have long been foundational for weather and climate science. They have also found a new use case, as training and verification data for machine-learnt weather prediction (MLWP) models. Here we compare short-lead time…
Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process that involves transforming a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts which satisfy a given set of linear constraints for a multivariate time series. In this paper we extend…
Modern weather forecasts are commonly issued as consistent multi-day forecast trajectories with a time resolution of 1-3 hours. Prior to issuing, statistical post-processing is routinely used to correct systematic errors and…
Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; EC for short) can provide a basis for the establishment of maritime-disaster warning systems, but they contain some systematic biases.The fifth-generation EC…