Related papers: Do Governments React to Public Debt Accumulation? …

We consider a government that aims at reducing the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of a country. The government observes the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio and an indicator of the state of the economy, but does not directly…

This paper investigates how the cost of public debt shapes fiscal policy and its effect on the economy. Using U.S. historical data, I show that when servicing the debt creates a fiscal burden, the government responds to spending shocks by…

Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly…

We analyze the problem of optimal reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio in a stochastic control setting. The debt-to-GDP dynamics are modeled through a stochastic differential equation in which fiscal policy simultaneously affects both debt…

We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to…

We solve an infinite time-horizon bounded-variation stochastic control problem with regime switching between $N$ states. This is motivated by the problem of a government that wants to control the country's debt-to-GDP (gross domestic…

This paper investigates the relevance of the No-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate, a necessary assumption for Ricardian equivalence) and of the transversality…

An important issue within the present economic crisis is understanding the dynamics of the public debt of a given country, and how the behavior of average consumers and tax payers in that country affects it. Starting from a model of the…

Consider the problem of a government that wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of a country. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the…

We study the effects on economic activity of a pure temporary change in government debt and the relationship between the debt multiplier and the level of debt in an overlapping generations framework. The debt multiplier is positive but…

We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However,…

We study the relationship between foreign debt and GDP growth using a panel dataset of 50 countries from 1997 to 2015. We find that economic growth correlates positively with foreign debt and that the relationship is causal in nature by…

In a dynamic economy, we characterize the fiscal policy of the government when it levies distortionary taxes and issues defaultable bonds to finance its stochastic expenditure. Default may occur in equilibrium as it prevents the government…

I devise a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the short run with multi-category treatment effects and inverse probability weighting based on the potential outcome framework. This study's main contribution to…

We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national savings rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960-2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate…

We discuss a class of debt management problems in a stochastic environment model. We propose a model for the debt-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio where the government interventions via fiscal policies affect the public debt and the…

How does public debt matter for price stability? If it is useful for the private sector to insure idiosyncratic risk, even transitory government debt expansions can exert upward pressure on interest rates and create inflation. As I…

We consider a model of debt management, where a sovereign state trade some bonds to service the debt with a pool of risk-neutral competitive foreign investors. At each time, the government decides which fraction of the gross domestic…

Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…

This paper revisits the discussion on determinants of budget balances and investigates the change in their effect in light of the COVID-19 crisis by utilizing data on 43 countries and a system generalized method of moments approach. The…