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We propose to use Bayesian optimization (BO) to improve the efficiency of the design selection process in clinical trials. BO is a method to optimize expensive black-box functions, by using a regression as a surrogate to guide the search.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-20 Jakob Richter , Tim Friede , Jörg Rahnenführer

We propose a general method for distributed Bayesian model choice, using the marginal likelihood, where a data set is split in non-overlapping subsets. These subsets are only accessed locally by individual workers and no data is shared…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-18 Alexander Buchholz , Daniel Ahfock , Sylvia Richardson

Under a generalised estimating equation analysis approach, approximate design theory is used to determine Bayesian D-optimal designs. For two examples, considering simple exchangeable and exponential decay correlation structures, we compare…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-16 Laura Etfer , James M. S. Wason , Michael J. Grayling

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems typically relies on posterior sampling approaches, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, for which the generation of each sample requires one or more evaluations of the parameter-to-observable map or…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-23 Jinglai Li , Youssef M. Marzouk

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-28 Diego Casadei

Parameter ensembles or sets of random effects constitute one of the cornerstones of modern statistical practice. This is especially the case in Bayesian hierarchical models, where several decision theoretic frameworks can be deployed. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Cedric E. Ginestet

Clustering is a crucial task in various domains of knowledge, including medicine, epidemiology, genomics, environmental science, economics, and visual sciences, among others. Methodologies for inferring the number of clusters have often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Clara Grazian

Understanding how stochastic gene expression is regulated in biological systems using snapshots of single-cell transcripts requires state-of-the-art methods of computational analysis and statistical inference. A Bayesian approach to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-12-10 Yen Ting Lin , Nicolas E. Buchler

Bayesian model selection provides the cosmologist with an exacting tool to distinguish between competing models based purely on the data, via the Bayesian evidence. Previous methods to calculate this quantity either lacked general…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 J. R. Shaw , M. Bridges , M. P. Hobson

Bayesian adaptive designs enable flexible clinical trials by adapting features based on accumulating data. Among these, Bayesian Response-Adaptive Randomization (BRAR) skews patient allocation towards more promising treatments based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-05 Daniel Kaddaj , Stef Baas , Edwin Y. N. Tang , David S. Robertson , Lukas Pin , Sofía S. Villar

Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) is a useful approach to causal inference from observational studies when randomised controlled trials are not feasible. However, study heterogeneity of two association studies required in MR is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-16 Linyi Zou , Hui Guo , Carlo Berzuini

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

Optimal design facilitates intelligent data collection. In this paper, we introduce a fully Bayesian design approach for spatial processes with complex covariance structures, like those typically exhibited in natural ecosystems. Coordinate…

This study concerns the formulation and application of Bayesian optimal experimental design to symbolic discovery, which is the inference from observational data of predictive models taking general functional forms. We apply constrained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Kenneth L. Clarkson , Cristina Cornelio , Sanjeeb Dash , Joao Goncalves , Lior Horesh , Nimrod Megiddo

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful framework for estimating parameters of expensive simulation models, particularly in settings where the likelihood is intractable and evaluations are costly. In stochastic models every simulation is…

We propose a new sampling algorithm combining two quite powerful ideas in the Markov chain Monte Carlo literature -- adaptive Metropolis sampler and two-stage Metropolis-Hastings sampler. The proposed sampling method will be particularly…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-05 Anirban Mondal , Kai Yin , Abhijit Mandal

The determination of the sample size required by a crossover trial typically depends on the specification of one or more variance components. Uncertainty about the value of these parameters at the design stage means that there is often a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Michael Grayling , Adrian Mander , James Wason

In experimental design, we are given $n$ vectors in $d$ dimensions, and our goal is to select $k\ll n$ of them to perform expensive measurements, e.g., to obtain labels/responses, for a linear regression task. Many statistical criteria have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Michał Dereziński , Feynman Liang , Michael W. Mahoney

We present a bayesassurance R package that computes the Bayesian assurance under various settings characterized by different assumptions and objectives. The package offers a constructive set of simulation-based functions suitable for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-30 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

We propose a Bayesian optimal phase 2 design for jointly monitoring efficacy and toxicity, referred to as BOP2-TE, to improve the operating characteristics of the BOP2 design proposed by Zhou et al. (2017). BOP2-TE utilizes a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-13 Kai Chen , Heng Zhou , J. Jack Lee , Ying Yuan