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We study the problem of off-policy evaluation in the multi-armed bandit model with bounded rewards, and develop minimax rate-optimal procedures under three settings. First, when the behavior policy is known, we show that the Switch…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-20 Cong Ma , Banghua Zhu , Jiantao Jiao , Martin J. Wainwright

Quantifying treatment effect heterogeneity is a crucial task in many areas of causal inference, e.g. optimal treatment allocation and estimation of subgroup effects. We study the problem of estimating the level sets of the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-03 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke J. Keele

The linear functional strategy for the regularization of inverse problems is considered. For selecting the regularization parameter therein, we propose the heuristic quasi-optimality principle and some modifications including the smoothness…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-05-23 Stefan Kindermann , Sergiy Pereverzyev , Andrey Pilipenko

Empirical researchers and decision-makers spanning various domains frequently seek profound insights into the long-term impacts of interventions. While the significance of long-term outcomes is undeniable, an overemphasis on them may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Peng Wu , Ziyu Shen , Feng Xie , Zhongyao Wang , Chunchen Liu , Yan Zeng

We present estimators for smooth Hilbert-valued parameters, where smoothness is characterized by a pathwise differentiability condition. When the parameter space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we provide a means to obtain efficient,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-28 Alex Luedtke , Incheoul Chung

Diffusion models achieve remarkable generation quality, yet face a fundamental challenge known as memorization, where generated samples can replicate training samples exactly. We develop a theoretical framework to explain this phenomenon by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Xinyu Zhou , Jiawei Zhang , Stephen J. Wright

Calibration weighting has been widely used to correct selection biases in non-probability sampling, missing data, and causal inference. The main idea is to calibrate the biased sample to the benchmark by adjusting the subject weights.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Chenyin Gao , Shu Yang , Jae Kwang Kim

This paper investigates a specific class of nonsmooth nonconvex optimization problems in the face of data uncertainty, namely, robust optimization problems, where the given objective function can be expressed as a difference of two…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Feryal Mashkoorzadeh , Nooshin Movahedian

With a focus on linear models with smooth functional covariates, we propose a penalization framework (SACR) based on the nonzero centered ridge, where the center of the penalty is optimally reweighted in a supervised way, starting from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Edoardo Belli

We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Jiayi Guo , Zijun Gao

Off-policy evaluation often refers to two related tasks: estimating the expected return of a policy and estimating its value function (or other functions of interest, such as density ratios). While recent works on marginalized importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-28 Audrey Huang , Nan Jiang

We consider quantile estimation in a semi-supervised setting, characterized by two available data sets: (i) a small or moderate sized labeled data set containing observations for a response and a set of possibly high dimensional covariates,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-15 Abhishek Chakrabortty , Guorong Dai , Raymond J. Carroll

We develop a trust-region method for efficiently minimizing the sum of a smooth function, a nonsmooth convex function, and the composition of a finite-valued support function with a smooth function. Optimization problems with this structure…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-09 Drew P. Kouri

Many statistical estimands can expressed as continuous linear functionals of a conditional expectation function. This includes the average treatment effect under unconfoundedness and generalizations for continuous-valued and personalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-23 David A. Hirshberg , Stefan Wager

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Maggie Makar , Fredrik D. Johansson , John Guttag , David Sontag

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that replaces point predictions with sets, offering marginal coverage guarantees (i.e., ensuring that the prediction sets contain the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Margarida M. Campos , João Calém , Sophia Sklaviadis , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

The non-parametric estimation of average causal effects in observational studies often relies on controlling for confounding covariates through smoothing regression methods such as kernel, splines or local polynomial regression. Such…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-20 Jenny Häggström , Xavier de Luna

In the framework of nonparametric multivariate function estimation we are interested in structural adaptation. We assume that the function to be estimated has the "single-index" structure where neither the link function nor the index vector…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-30 Oleg Lepski , Nora Serdyukova

An adaptive regularization algorithm using inexact function and derivatives evaluations is proposed for the solution of composite nonsmooth nonconvex optimization. It is shown that this algorithm needs at most…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-02-28 S. Gratton , E. Simon , Ph. L. Toint

Non-randomized treatment effect models are widely used for the assessment of treatment effects in various fields and in particular social science disciplines like political science, psychometry, psychology. More specifically, these are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-02 Debarghya Mukherjee , Moulinath Banerjee , Ya'acov Ritov