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We develop a novel method for personalized off-policy learning in scenarios with unobserved confounding. Thereby, we address a key limitation of standard policy learning: standard policy learning assumes unconfoundedness, meaning that no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Konstantin Hess , Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

A softmax operator applied to a set of values acts somewhat like the maximization function and somewhat like an average. In sequential decision making, softmax is often used in settings where it is necessary to maximize utility but also to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-06-15 Kavosh Asadi , Michael L. Littman

Precision medicine is currently a topic of great interest in clinical and intervention science. One way to formalize precision medicine is through a treatment regime, which is a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of clinical…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-07 Yichi Zhang , Eric B. Laber , Anastasios Tsiatis , Marie Davidian

A central goal of causal inference is to detect and estimate the treatment effects of a given treatment or intervention on an outcome variable of interest, where a member known as the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) is of growing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Zijun Gao , Yanjun Han

We propose a semiparametric method to estimate the average treatment effect under the assumption of unconfoundedness given observational data. Our estimation method alleviates misspecification issues of the propensity score function by…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-16 Difang Huang , Jiti Gao , Tatsushi Oka

We study the evaluation of a policy under best- and worst-case perturbations to a Markov decision process (MDP), using transition observations from the original MDP, whether they are generated under the same or a different policy. This is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu , Wen Sun , Kaiwen Wang

We propose a simple and general framework for nonparametric estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under fairness constraints. Under standard regularity conditions, we show that the resulting estimators possess the double robustness…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-21 Kwangho Kim , José R. Zubizarreta

We study nonparametric change-point estimation from indirect noisy observations. Focusing on the white noise convolution model, we consider two classes of functions that are smooth apart from the change-point. We establish lower bounds on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 A. Goldenshluger , A. Tsybakov , A. Zeevi

A decision maker typically (i) incorporates training data to learn about the relative effectiveness of treatments, and (ii) chooses an implementation mechanism that implies an ``optimal'' predicted outcome distribution according to some…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-29 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer

This paper deals with the problem of finding suboptimal values of an unknown function on the basis of measured data corrupted by bounded noise. As a prior, we assume that the unknown function is parameterized in terms of a number of basis…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Jaap Eising , Jorge Cortes

Off-policy evaluation provides an essential tool for evaluating the effects of different policies or treatments using only observed data. When applied to high-stakes scenarios such as medical diagnosis or financial decision-making, it is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Ziyang Tang , Yihao Feng , Na Zhang , Jian Peng , Qiang Liu

Point identification of causal effects requires strong assumptions that are unreasonable in many practical settings. However, informative bounds on these effects can often be derived under plausible assumptions. Even when these bounds are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-18 Julien D. Laurendeau , Aaron L. Sarvet , Mats J. Stensrud

This paper develops new tools to quantify uncertainty in optimal decision making and to gain insight into which variables one should collect information about given the potential cost of measuring a large number of variables. We investigate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-11 Yunan Wu , Lan Wang , Haoda Fu

Motivated by the poor performance of cross-validation in settings where data are scarce, we propose a novel estimator of the out-of-sample performance of a policy in data-driven optimization.Our approach exploits the optimization problem's…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Vishal Gupta , Michael Huang , Paat Rusmevichientong

We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Kei Ishikawa , Niao He , Takafumi Kanamori

The problem of estimating a linear functional based on observational data is canonical in both the causal inference and bandit literatures. We analyze a broad class of two-stage procedures that first estimate the treatment effect function,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Wenlong Mou , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter L. Bartlett

In this paper, in a multivariate setting we derive near optimal rates of convergence in the minimax sense for estimating partial derivatives of the mean function for functional data observed under a fixed synchronous design over H\"older…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-25 Max Berger , Hajo Holzmann

In deep learning-based classification tasks, the softmax function's temperature parameter $T$ critically influences the output distribution and overall performance. This study presents a novel theoretical insight that the optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Tatsuhito Hasegawa , Shunsuke Sakai

We propose a new modeling and estimation approach to select the optimal treatment regime from different options through constructing a robust estimating equation. The method is protected against misspecification of the propensity score…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-15 Trinetri Ghosh , Yanyuan Ma , Wensheng Zhu , Yuanjia Wang

Recently, the wearable and non-invasive blood glucose estimation approach has been proposed. However, due to the unreliability of the acquisition device, the presence of the noise and the variations of the acquisition environments, the…

Medical Physics · Physics 2025-03-07 Yiting Wei , Bingo Wing-Kuen Ling , Danni Chen , Yuheng Dai , Qing Liu