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This article presents a Hawkes process model with Markovian baseline intensities for high-frequency order book data modeling. We classify intraday order book trading events into a range of categories based on their order types and the price…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-07 Philip Protter , Qianfan Wu , Shihao Yang

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for inference in spatio-temporal Hawkes processes, extending existing theoretical results beyond the purely temporal setting. Our framework encompasses modelling both the background and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-08 Xenia Miscouridou , Deborah Sulem

Various approaches to stochastic processes exist, noting that key properties such as measurability and continuity are not trivially satisfied. We introduce a new theory for Gaussian processes using improper linear functionals. Using a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-15 Niels Lundtorp Olsen

This paper proposes a unified approach for studying global exponential stability of a general class of switched systems described by time-varying nonlinear functional differential equations. Some new delay-independent criteria of global…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-09-16 Nguyen Khoa Son , Le Van Ngoc

As an extension of self-exciting Hawkes process, the multivariate Hawkes process models counting processes of different types of random events with mutual excitement. In this paper, we present a perfect sampling algorithm that can generate…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-12 Xinyun Chen , Xiuwen Wang

In many applications, the common assumption that a driving noise process affecting a system is independent or Markovian may not be realistic, but the noise process may be assumed to be stationary. To study such problems, this paper…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-08 Serdar Yüksel

We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Stojan Jovanović , John Hertz , Stefan Rotter

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Guanhua Fang , Ganggang Xu , Haochen Xu , Xuening Zhu , Yongtao Guan

We define a numerical method that provides a non-parametric estimation of the kernel shape in symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes. This method relies on second order statistical properties of Hawkes processes that relate the covariance…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-03 E. Bacry , K. Dayri , J. F. Muzy

The diversity of neuron models used in contemporary theoretical neuroscience to investigate specific properties of covariances raises the question how these models relate to each other. In particular it is hard to distinguish between…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-17 Dmytro Grytskyy , Tom Tetzlaff , Markus Diesmann , Moritz Helias

Properties of strong mixing have been established for the stationary linear Hawkes process in the univariate case, and can serve as a basis for statistical applications. In this paper, we provide the technical arguments needed to extend the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Ousmane Boly , Felix Cheysson , Thi Hien Nguyen

We give sufficient conditions such that the exponential stability of the linearization of a non-linear system implies that the non-linear system is (locally) exponentially stable. One of these conditions is that the non-linear system is…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2014-04-15 Hans Zwart

Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-01 Triet M Le

We consider the long-time behavior of a population of interacting Hawkes processes on the real line, with spatial extension. The large population behavior of the system is governed by the standard Voltage-based Neural Field Equation (NFE).…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-28 Eric Luçon , Christophe Poquet

We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…

This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…

Geophysics · Physics 2014-08-26 Didier Sornette , Ivan Osorio

We prove regularity estimates for functions which are harmonic with respect to certain jump processes. The aim of this article is to extend the method of Bass-Levin[BL02] and Bogdan-Sztonyk[BS05] to more general processes. Furthermore, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-22 Moritz Kassmann , Ante Mimica

In this paper we introduce a new class of L\'evy processes which we call hypergeometric-stable L\'evy processes, because they are obtained from symmetric stable processes through several transformations and where the Gauss hypergeometric…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-05 M. E. Caballero , J. C. Pardo , J. L. Perez

In this work we investigate the generic properties of a stochastic linear model in the regime of high-dimensionality. We consider in particular the Vector AutoRegressive model (VAR) and the multivariate Hawkes process. We analyze both…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-11 Iacopo Mastromatteo , Emmanuel Bacry , Jean-François Muzy
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