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Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

As we all known, the nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) is a dimension reduction method that has been widely used in image processing, text compressing and signal processing etc. In this paper, an algorithm for nonnegative matrix…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology,…

We present a method to transform multivariate unimodal non-Gaussian posterior probability densities into approximately Gaussian ones via non-linear mappings, such as Box--Cox transformations and generalisations thereof. This permits an…

This paper is concerned with inverse acoustic scattering problem of inferring the position and shape of a sound-soft obstacle from phaseless far-field data. We propose the Bayesian approach to recover sound-soft disks, line cracks and…

Economic Model Predictive Control (EMPC) has recently become popular because of its ability to control constrained nonlinear systems while explicitly optimizing a prescribed performance criterion. Large performance gains have been reported…

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…

The use of Cauchy Markov random field priors in statistical inverse problems can potentially lead to posterior distributions which are non-Gaussian, high-dimensional, multimodal and heavy-tailed. In order to use such priors successfully,…

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) methodology for approximating integrals, for instance in the context of Bayesian inference. In IS, the samples are simulated from the so-called proposal distribution, and the choice of…

Bayesian inference is a widely used technique for real-time characterization of quantum systems. It excels in experimental characterization in the low data regime, and when the measurements have degrees of freedom. A decisive factor for its…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods remain the mainstay of Bayesian estimation of structural equation models (SEM), though they often incur a high computational cost. We present a bespoke approximate Bayesian approach to SEM, drawing on…

We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…

We study randomized sketching methods for approximately solving least-squares problem with a general convex constraint. The quality of a least-squares approximation can be assessed in different ways: either in terms of the value of the…

Machine learning (ML) problems are often posed as highly nonlinear and nonconvex unconstrained optimization problems. Methods for solving ML problems based on stochastic gradient descent are easily scaled for very large problems but may…

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…

We consider the Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) method for solving statistical inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The power of the RMHMC method is that it exploits the geometric structure…

Sequential optimization methods are often confronted with the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional spaces. Current approaches under the Gaussian process framework are still burdened by the computational complexity of tracking…

Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…