Related papers: FARS: Factor Augmented Regression Scenarios in R
Due to the dynamic nature of financial markets, maintaining models that produce precise predictions over time is difficult. Often the goal isn't just point prediction but determining uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty, especially the…
As one of the most powerful tools for examining the association between functional covariates and a response, the functional regression model has been widely adopted in various interdisciplinary studies. Usually, a limited number of…
A multivariate quantile regression model with a factor structure is proposed to study data with many responses of interest. The factor structure is allowed to vary with the quantile levels, which makes our framework more flexible than the…
Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) are a flexible class of regression models that allow to model multiple parameters of a distribution function, such as the mean and the standard deviation, simultaneously.…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
This paper presents the R package GAS for the analysis of time series under the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) framework of Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013). The distinctive feature of the GAS approach is the use of the score…
Generative models for multivariate time series are essential for data augmentation, simulation, and privacy preservation, yet current state-of-the-art diffusion-based approaches are slow and limited to fixed-length windows. We propose…
A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is defined by a VAR equation that captures lead-lag correlations amongst a set of observed variables $X$ and latent factors $F$, and a calibration equation that relates another set of…
The paper considers linear regression problems where the number of predictor variables is possibly larger than the sample size. The basic motivation of the study is to combine the points of view of model selection and functional regression…
This article investigates factor-augmented sparse MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions for high-dimensional time series data, which may be observed at different frequencies. Our novel approach integrates sparse and dense dimensionality…
We introduce an \verb|R| package, called \verb|MPS|, for computing the probability density function, computing the cumulative distribution function, computing the quantile function, simulating random variables, and estimating the parameters…
Robust reinforcement learning (RL) considers the problem of learning policies that perform well in the worst case among a set of possible environment parameter values. In real-world environments, choosing the set of possible values for…
Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…
A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…
Fine-tuning is a widely used strategy for adapting pre-trained models to new tasks, yet its methodology and theoretical properties in high-dimensional nonparametric settings with variable selection have not yet been developed. We propose a…
We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with…
We present four novel tests of equal predictive accuracy and encompassing \`a la Pitarakis (2023, 2025) for factor-augmented regressions, where factors are estimated using cross-section averages (CAs) of grouped series. Our inferential…
This manuscript proposes to extend the information set of time-series regression trees with latent stationary factors extracted via state-space methods. In doing so, this approach generalises time-series regression trees on two dimensions.…
We propose a dynamic factor model (DFM) where the latent factors are linked to observed variables with unknown and potentially nonlinear functions. The key novelty and source of flexibility of our approach is a nonparametric observation…
Feature Selection (FS) is a key task in Machine Learning. It consists in selecting a number of relevant variables for the model construction or data analysis. We present the R package, FSinR, which implements a variety of widely known…