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Many programs evaluated in observational studies incorporate a sequential structure, where individuals may be assigned to various programs over time. While this complexity is often simplified by analyzing programs at single points in time,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-16 Fabian Muny

We propose plug-in (PI) and double machine learning (DML) estimators of average treatment effect (ATE), average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) and local average treatment effect (LATE) in the multivariate sample selection model with…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-18 Sofiia Dolgikh , Bodan Potanin

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is one of the most popular approaches for empirical research in economics, political science, and beyond. Identification in these models is based on the conditional parallel trends assumption: In the absence…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-13 Philipp Bach , Sven Klaassen , Jannis Kueck , Mara Mattes , Martin Spindler

We introduce the Strategic Doubly Robust (SDR) estimator, a novel framework that integrates strategic equilibrium modeling with doubly robust estimation for causal inference in strategic environments. SDR addresses endogenous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Sibo Xiao

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is a cornerstone of causal inference, yet extending it to functional outcomes is not a routine scalar generalization; rather, it entails three fundamental challenges in identification, inference, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Junzhu Nie , Chengxiu Ling , Mengfei Ran

Adaptive causal representation learning from observational data is presented, integrated with an efficient sample splitting technique within the semiparametric estimating equation framework. The support points sample splitting (SPSS), a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-25 Lynda Aouar , Han Yu

We propose a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework with mediation for possibly multivalued discrete or continuous treatments and mediators, aimed at identifying the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome (net of effects operating…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-02 Martin Huber , Sarina Joy Oberhänsli

Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and…

This study introduces an integrated framework for predictive causal inference designed to overcome limitations inherent in conventional single model approaches. Specifically, we combine a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for spatial health state…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-31 Byunghee Lee , Hye Yeon Sin , Joonsung Kang

The double machine learning (DML) method combines the predictive power of machine learning with statistical estimation to conduct inference about the structural parameter of interest. This paper presents the R package `xtdml`, which…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-19 Annalivia Polselli

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Causal inference has received great attention across different fields from economics, statistics, education, medicine, to machine learning. Within this area, inferring causal effects at individual level in observational studies has become…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-16 Thai Pham

Uncovering causal mediation effects is of significant value to practitioners seeking to isolate the direct treatment effect from the potential mediated effect. We propose a double machine learning (DML) algorithm for mediation analysis that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Houssam Zenati , Judith Abécassis , Julie Josse , Bertrand Thirion

Over the past few decades, addressing "spatial confounding" has become a major topic in spatial statistics. However, the literature has provided conflicting definitions, and many proposed solutions are tied to specific analysis models and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-14 Brian Gilbert , Abhirup Datta , Joan A. Casey , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is crucial for precision medicine. While multiple studies can improve the generalizability of results, leveraging them for estimation is statistically challenging. Existing approaches often…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-22 Cathy Shyr , Boyu Ren , Prasad Patil , Giovanni Parmigiani

When studying treatment effects in multilevel studies, investigators commonly use (semi-)parametric estimators, which make strong parametric assumptions about the outcome, the treatment, and/or the correlation structure between study units…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

We introduce the package ddml for Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DDML) in Stata. Estimators of causal parameters for five different econometric models are supported, allowing for flexible estimation of causal effects of endogenous…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-09 Achim Ahrens , Christian B. Hansen , Mark E. Schaffer , Thomas Wiemann

A common issue in learning decision-making policies in data-rich settings is spurious correlations in the offline dataset, which can be caused by hidden confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) regression, which utilises a key unconfounded…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Daqian Shao , Ashkan Soleymani , Francesco Quinzan , Marta Kwiatkowska

This study utilizes a simulated dataset to establish Python code for Double Machine Learning (DML) using Anaconda's Jupyter Notebook and the DML software package from GitHub. The research focuses on causal inference experiments for both…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-28 Shunxin Yao

Proper hyperparameter tuning is essential for achieving optimal performance of modern machine learning (ML) methods in predictive tasks. While there is an extensive literature on tuning ML learners for prediction, there is only little…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-08 Philipp Bach , Oliver Schacht , Victor Chernozhukov , Sven Klaassen , Martin Spindler