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We introduce a scalable approach to Gaussian process inference that combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a non-conjugate GP method for multivariate data that scales linearly with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Oliver Hamelijnck , William J. Wilkinson , Niki A. Loppi , Arno Solin , Theodoros Damoulas

We aim to incorporate variable selection routines into variable-by-variable (or sequential) imputation in clustered data to achieve computational improvement in applications with large-scale health data. Specifically, we utilize variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Qiushuang Li , Recai Yucel

Bayesian spatial modeling provides a flexible framework for whole-brain fMRI analysis by explicitly incorporating spatial dependencies, overcoming the limitations of traditional massive univariate approaches that lead to information waste.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Yuan Zhong , Gang Chen , Paul A. Taylor , Jian Kang

Evaluating models fit to data with internal spatial structure requires specific cross-validation (CV) approaches, because randomly selecting assessment data may produce assessment sets that are not truly independent of data used to train…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-14 Michael J Mahoney , Lucas K Johnson , Julia Silge , Hannah Frick , Max Kuhn , Colin M Beier

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification, but accurate posterior sampling with MCMC can be computationally prohibitive for modern applications. Variational inference (VI) offers a scalable alternative and often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Laura Battaglia , Stefano Cortinovis , Chris Holmes , David T. Frazier , Jack Jewson

Bayesian inference has become an important tool to solve inverse problems and to quantify uncertainties in their solutions. Variational inference is a method that provides probabilistic, Bayesian solutions efficiently by using optimization.…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-10-15 Xin Zhang , Andrew Curtis

A central question in multimodal neuroimaging analysis is to understand the association between two imaging modalities and to identify brain regions where such an association is statistically significant. In this article, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-28 Moyan Li , Lexin Li , Jian Kang

The problem of missing values in multivariable time series is a key challenge in many applications such as clinical data mining. Although many imputation methods show their effectiveness in many applications, few of them are designed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-04 Ye Xue , Diego Klabjan , Yuan Luo

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful tools for nonlinear classification in which latent GPs are combined with link functions. But GPs do not scale well to large training data. This is compounded for classification where the latent GPs…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-28 Andrew Cooper , Annie S. Booth , Robert B. Gramacy

Taxi arrival time prediction is essential for building intelligent transportation systems. Traditional prediction methods mainly rely on extracting features from traffic maps, which cannot model complex situations and nonlinear spatial and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-01 ZiChuan Liu , Zhaoyang Wu , Meng Wang , Rui Zhang

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

We consider the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices from high-dimensional sub-Gaussian or heavier-tailed observations with slowly decaying temporal dependence. The temporal dependence is allowed to be long-range so with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-23 Hai Shu , Bin Nan

We propose stepwise variational inference (VI) with vine copulas: a universal VI procedure that combines vine copulas with a novel stepwise estimation procedure of the variational parameters. Vine copulas consist of a nested sequence of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-25 Elisabeth Griesbauer , Leiv Rønneberg , Arnoldo Frigessi , Claudia Czado , Ingrid Hobæk Haff

This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-08 Zhen Liu , Xiaoqian Sun , Yu-Bo Wang

Spatiotemporal data analysis with massive zeros is widely used in many areas such as epidemiology and public health. We use a Bayesian framework to fit zero-inflated negative binomial models and employ a set of latent variables from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-08 Qing He , Hsin-Hsiung Huang

The stochastic variational inference (SVI) paradigm, which combines variational inference, natural gradients, and stochastic updates, was recently proposed for large-scale data analysis in conjugate Bayesian models and demonstrated to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-05 Rishit Sheth , Roni Khardon

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Gary Koop , Dimitris Korobilis

In the following paper we consider a simulation technique for stochastic trees. One of the most important areas in computational genetics is the calculation and subsequent maximization of the likelihood function associated to such models.…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-20 Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio , Marc Chadeau-Hyam

The rapid growth of earth observation systems calls for a scalable approach to interpolate remote-sensing observations. These methods in principle, should acquire more information about the observed field as data grows. Gaussian processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Weibin Chen , Azhir Mahmood , Michel Tsamados , So Takao