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Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with a computationally feasible surrogate loss is a widely accepted approach for classification. Notably, the convexity and calibration (CC) properties of a loss function ensure consistency of ERM in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-05 Ben Dai

While the expected calibration error (ECE), which employs binning, is widely adopted to evaluate the calibration performance of machine learning models, theoretical understanding of its estimation bias is limited. In this paper, we present…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Futoshi Futami , Masahiro Fujisawa

We propose generalized resubstitution error estimators for regression, a broad family of estimators, each corresponding to a choice of empirical probability measures and loss function. The usual sum of squares criterion is a special case…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Diego Marcondes , Ulisses Braga-Neto

DP-means clustering was obtained as an extension of $K$-means clustering. While it is implemented with a simple and efficient algorithm, it can estimate the number of clusters simultaneously. However, DP-means is specifically designed for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-26 Masahiro Kobayashi , Kazuho Watanabe

We propose a novel $\ell_1+\ell_2$-penalty, which we refer to as the Generalized Elastic Net, for regression problems where the feature vectors are indexed by vertices of a given graph and the true signal is believed to be smooth or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Huy Tran , Sansen Wei , Claire Donnat

We discuss equivalent axiomatic characterizations of distortion risk measures, and give a novel and concise proof of the characterization of elicitable distortion risk measures. Elicitability has recently been discussed as a desirable…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-27 Ruodu Wang , Johanna F. Ziegel

Evolution strategies (ESs) are zeroth-order stochastic black-box optimization heuristics invariant to monotonic transformations of the objective function. They evolve a multivariate normal distribution, from which candidate solutions are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-02-09 Youhei Akimoto , Anne Auger , Tobias Glasmachers , Daiki Morinaga

In this paper, by proposing two new kinds of distributional uncertainty sets, we explore robustness of distortion risk measures against distributional uncertainty. To be precise, we first consider a distributional uncertainty set which is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-15 Xiangyu Han , Yijun Hu , Ran Wang , Linxiao Wei

The nested error regression model is a useful tool for analyzing clustered (grouped) data, and is especially used in small area estimation. The classical nested error regression model assumes normality of random effects and error terms, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-16 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

Optimization under uncertainty and risk is indispensable in many practical situations. Our paper addresses stability of optimization problems using composite risk functionals which are subjected to measure perturbations. Our main focus is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-06 Darinka Dentcheva , Yang Lin , Spiridon Penev

Backtesting risk measures is a central task in financial regulation. While standard backtests evaluate whether a forecasting model is statistically consistent with observed losses, regulatory practice often requires assessing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Zhanyi Jiao , Qiuqi Wang , Yimiao Zhao

In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-08-10 Tobias Fissler , Johanna F. Ziegel , Tilmann Gneiting

A novel heuristic approach is proposed here for time series data analysis, dubbed Generalized weighted permutation entropy, which amalgamates and generalizes beyond their original scope two well established data analysis methods:…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-19 Darko Stosic , Dusan Stosic , Tatijana Stosic , Borko Stosic

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for estimating parameters of statistical models. However, EM, which is an iterative algorithm based on the maximum likelihood principle, is generally only guaranteed to find…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-30 Ji Xu , Daniel Hsu , Arian Maleki

Convergence of Extremum Seeking (ES) algorithms has been established in the limit of small gains. Using averaging theory and contraction analysis, we propose a framework for computing explicit bounds on the departure of the ES scheme from…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-03-20 Gabriel Bousquet , Jean-Jacques Slotine

This paper introduces \emph{biased mean regression}, estimating the \emph{biased mean}, i.e., $\mathbb{E}[Y] + x$, where $x \in \mathbb{R}$. The approach addresses a fundamental statistical problem that covers numerous applications. For…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-31 Anton Malandii , Stan Uryasev

This paper investigates an expected average error for distributed averaging problems under asynchronous updates. The asynchronism in this context implies no existence of a global clock as well as random characteristics in communication…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-06-04 Kooktae Lee

An important challenge in statistical analysis lies in controlling the bias of estimators due to the ever-increasing data size and model complexity. Approximate numerical methods and data features like censoring and misclassification often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Yuming Zhang

Analysis of non-asymptotic estimation error and structured statistical recovery based on norm regularized regression, such as Lasso, needs to consider four aspects: the norm, the loss function, the design matrix, and the noise model. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-01 Arindam Banerjee , Sheng Chen , Farideh Fazayeli , Vidyashankar Sivakumar

The issue related to the quantification of the tail risk of cryptocurrencies is considered in this paper. The statistical methods used in the study are those concerning recent developments in Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for weakly dependent…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-30 Andrea Teruzzi