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Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-11 Nicola Bariletto , Nhat Ho

The use of hierarchical mixture priors with shared atoms has recently flourished in the Bayesian literature for partially exchangeable data. Leveraging on nested levels of mixtures, these models allow the estimation of a two-layered data…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Laura D'Angelo , Francesco Denti

This paper introduces a Bayesian inference framework for incomplete structural models, termed distribution-matching posterior inference (DMPI). Extending the minimal econometric interpretation (MEI), DMPI constructs a divergence-based…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-06 Takashi Kano

Although discrete mixture modeling has formed the backbone of the literature on Bayesian density estimation, there are some well known disadvantages. We propose an alternative class of priors based on random nonlinear functions of a uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Suprateek Kundu , David B. Dunson

Metropolis-Hastings estimates intractable expectations - can differentiating the algorithm estimate their gradients? The challenge is that Metropolis-Hastings trajectories are not conventionally differentiable due to the discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Gaurav Arya , Moritz Schauer , Ruben Seyer

Using Kalman techniques, it is possible to perform optimal estimation in linear Gaussian state-space models. We address here the case where the noise probability density functions are of unknown functional form. A flexible Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-13 François Caron , Manuel Davy , Arnaud Doucet , Emmanuel Duflos , Philippe Vanheeghe

We consider nonparametric estimation of a mixed discrete-continuous distribution under anisotropic smoothness conditions and possibly increasing number of support points for the discrete part of the distribution. For these settings, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Andriy Norets , Justinas Pelenis

We describe and analyze a broad class of mixture models for real-valued multivariate data in which the probability density of observations within each component of the model is represented as an arbitrary combination of basis functions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-28 M. E. J. Newman

We provide novel probabilistic portrayals of two multivariate models designed to handle zero-inflation in count-compositional data. We develop a new unifying framework that represents both as finite mixture distributions. One of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 André F. B. Menezes , Andrew C. Parnell , Keefe Murphy

Deterministic mathematical models, such as those specified via differential equations, are a powerful tool to communicate scientific insight. However, such models are necessarily simplified descriptions of the real world. Generalised…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Zheyang Shen , Jeremias Knoblauch , Sam Power , Chris. J. Oates

This paper introduces and studies a new class of nonparametric prior distributions. Random probability distribution functions are constructed via normalization of random measures driven by increasing additive processes. In particular, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Luis E. Nieto-Barajas , Igor Prunster , Stephen G. Walker

Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Sahra Ghalebikesabi , Chris Holmes , Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

We show that rate-adaptive multivariate density estimation can be performed using Bayesian methods based on Dirichlet mixtures of normal kernels with a prior distribution on the kernel's covariance matrix parameter. We derive sufficient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-22 Weining Shen , Surya T. Tokdar , Subhashis Ghosal

Mixture models are widely used in modeling heterogeneous data populations. A standard approach of mixture modeling assumes that the mixture component takes a parametric kernel form. In many applications, making parametric assumptions on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Yilei Zhang , Yun Wei , Aritra Guha , XuanLong Nguyen

The hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) has become an important Bayesian nonparametric model for grouped data, such as document collections. The HDP is used to construct a flexible mixed-membership model where the number of components is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-01-10 Chong Wang , David M. Blei

To identify novel dynamic patterns of gene expression, we develop a statistical method to cluster noisy measurements of gene expression collected from multiple replicates at multiple time points, with an unknown number of clusters. We…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-02 Audrey Qiuyan Fu , Steven Russell , Sarah J. Bray , Simon Tavaré

We consider the problem of clustering grouped data with possibly non-exchangeable groups whose dependencies can be characterized by a known directed acyclic graph. To allow the sharing of clusters among the non-exchangeable groups, we…

We develop methods for efficient amortized approximate Bayesian inference over posterior distributions of probabilistic clustering models, such as Dirichlet process mixture models. The approach is based on mapping distributed,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-27 Ari Pakman , Liam Paninski

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2008-06-26 Marco Zaffalon , Marcus Hutter

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-08 Marco Zaffalon , Marcus Hutter