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Information and uncertainty are closely related and extensively studied concepts in a number of scientific disciplines such as communication theory, probability theory, and statistics. Increasing the information arguably reduces the…
This work introduces the use of multivariate global sensitivity analysis for assessing the impact of uncertain electric machine design parameters on efficiency maps and profiles. Contrary to the common approach of applying variance-based…
Commonly used evaluation measures including Recall, Precision, F-Measure and Rand Accuracy are biased and should not be used without clear understanding of the biases, and corresponding identification of chance or base case levels of the…
We propose a new way to assess certain short constructed responses to mathematics items. Our approach uses a pipeline that identifies the key values specified by the student in their response. This allows us to determine the correctness of…
This paper considers the problem of appearance indication of useful acoustic signal in the signal/noise mixture. Various information characteristics (information entropy, Jensen-Shannon divergence, spectral information divergence and…
Numerous software companies are adopting value-based decision making. However, what does value mean for key stakeholders making decisions? How do different stakeholder groups understand value? Without an explicit understanding of what value…
The quality of assessment determines the quality of learning, and is characterized by validity, reliability and difficulty. Mastery of learning is generally represented by the difficulty levels of assessment items. A very large number of…
We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…
Recent discussions on alternative facts, fake news, and post truth politics have motivated research on creating technologies that allow people not only to access information, but also to assess the credibility of the information presented…
Background: Due to the finite size of the development sample, predicted probabilities from a risk prediction model are inevitably uncertain. We apply Value of Information methodology to evaluate the decision-theoretic implications of…
Decision makers involved in the management of civil assets and systems usually take actions under constraints imposed by societal regulations. Some of these constraints are related to epistemic quantities, as the probability of failure…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are pivotal tools that synthesize knowledge from climate science, economics, and policy to evaluate the interactions between human activities and the climate system. They serve as essential instruments…
Reinforcement learning systems are often concerned with balancing exploration of untested actions against exploitation of actions that are known to be good. The benefit of exploration can be estimated using the classical notion of Value of…
We present a representation of partial confidence in belief and preference that is consistent with the tenets of decision-theory. The fundamental insight underlying the representation is that if a person is not completely confident in a…
Message importance measure (MIM) is applicable to characterize the importance of information in the scenario of big data, similar to entropy in information theory. In fact, MIM with a variable parameter can make an effect on the…
Complex systems are found in most branches of science. It is still argued how to best quantify their complexity and to what end. One prominent measure of complexity (the statistical complexity) has an operational meaning in terms of the…
Automated decision systems (ADS) are increasingly used for consequential decision-making. These systems often rely on sophisticated yet opaque machine learning models, which do not allow for understanding how a given decision was arrived…
Complex adaptive systems (CAS) can be described as systems of information flows dynamically interacting across scales in order to adapt and survive. CAS often consist of many components that work towards a shared goal, and interact across…
We present a framework for analysing agent incentives using causal influence diagrams. We establish that a well-known criterion for value of information is complete. We propose a new graphical criterion for value of control, establishing…
The use of monitored data to improve the accuracy of building energy models and operation of energy systems is ubiquitous, with topics such as building monitoring and Digital Twinning attracting substantial research attention. However,…