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Gaussian processes are a versatile framework for learning unknown functions in a manner that permits one to utilize prior information about their properties. Although many different Gaussian process models are readily available when the…

Gaussian processes (GP) are powerful tools for probabilistic modeling purposes. They can be used to define prior distributions over latent functions in hierarchical Bayesian models. The prior over functions is defined implicitly by the mean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-16 Jarno Vanhatalo , Jaakko Riihimäki , Jouni Hartikainen , Pasi Jylänki , Ville Tolvanen , Aki Vehtari

We propose a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainties in inverse scattering problems. Given the observed data, the forward model and their uncertainties, we find the posterior distribution over a finite parameter field…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Ana Carpio , Sergei Iakunin , Georg Stadler

Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, with generalization properties determined by a kernel function. When used for long-range extrapolation, predictions are particularly sensitive to the choice of kernel parameters. It…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-05 Phillip A. Jang , Andrew E. Loeb , Matthew B. Davidow , Andrew Gordon Wilson

The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-02 Lulu Kang , Yuanxing Cheng , Yiwei Wang , Chun Liu

We introduce a Gaussian process-based model for handling of non-stationarity. The warping is achieved non-parametrically, through imposing a prior on the relative change of distance between subsequent observation inputs. The model allows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-06 David Tolpin

Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification in a general class of non-linear inverse regression models is considered. Analytic conditions on the regression model $\{\mathscr G(\theta): \theta \in \Theta\}$ and on Gaussian process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-16 François Monard , Richard Nickl , Gabriel P. Paternain

Nonparametric Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian processes have recently become popular in the empirical learning community. They encompass many classical methods of statistics, like Radial Basis Functions or various splines, and are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 J. C. Lemm

We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed multivariate diffusion processes. Observations are assumed to be discrete in time, noisy and incomplete. We assume the drift and diffusion coefficient depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-04 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Yibo Yang , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Paris Perdikaris

Consider the problem when $X_1,X_2,..., X_n$ are distributed on a circle following an unknown distribution $F$ on $S^1$. In this article we have consider the absolute general set-up where the density can have local features such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-26 Kinjal Basu , Debapriya Sengupta

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

In this work, we investigate Gaussian Processes indexed by multidimensional distributions. While directly constructing radial positive definite kernels based on the Wasserstein distance has been proven to be possible in the unidimensional…

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Yuhao Liu , Marzieh Ajirak , Petar Djuric

A general approach for the calculation of the incoherent intensity scattered by a random medium with rough boundaries has been developed using a Green function formalism. The random medium consists of spherical particles whose physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Soubret , G. Berginc

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

The velocity distributions of stellar tracers in general exhibit weak non-Gaussianity encoding information on the orbital composition of a galaxy and the underlying potential. The standard solution for measuring non-Gaussianity involves…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2020-10-28 Jason L. Sanders , N. Wyn Evans

We use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the model-form uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight,…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-08-17 Masaki Morimoto , Kai Fukami , Romit Maulik , Ricardo Vinuesa , Koji Fukagata

We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-24 Anurag Ghosh , Soumalya Mukhopadhyay , Sandipan Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Stationary points embedded in the derivatives are often critical for a model to be interpretable and may be considered as key features of interest in many applications. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian model to efficiently infer the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Cheng-Han Yu , Meng Li , Colin Noe , Simon Fischer-Baum , Marina Vannucci