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Each major technological revolution inverts a particular scarcity and rebuilds institutions around the shift. The near-consensus diagnosis of the AI revolution holds that AI collapses the cost of prediction while judgment remains scarce.…
The accelerating development and deployment of AI technologies depend on the continued ability to scale their infrastructure. This has implied increasing amounts of monetary investment and natural resources. Frontier AI applications have…
The energy consumption and carbon footprint of Artificial Intelligence (AI) have become critical concerns due to rising costs and environmental impacts. In response, a new trend in green AI is emerging, shifting from the "bigger is better"…
The skyrocketing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) has created an enormous appetite for globally deployed power-hungry servers. As a result, the environmental footprint of AI systems has come under increasing scrutiny. More crucially,…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is currently spearheaded by machine learning (ML) methods such as deep learning which have accelerated progress on many tasks thought to be out of reach of AI. These recent ML methods are often compute hungry,…
Recent work has advocated for training AI models on ever-larger datasets, arguing that as the size of a dataset increases, the performance of a model trained on that dataset will correspondingly increase (referred to as "scaling laws"). In…
This article exposes the failure of some big neural networks to leverage added capacity to reduce underfitting. Past research suggest diminishing returns when increasing the size of neural networks. Our experiments on ImageNet LSVRC-2010…
AI Scaling has traditionally been synonymous with Scaling Up, which builds larger and more powerful models. However, the growing demand for efficiency, adaptability, and collaboration across diverse applications necessitates a broader…
As AI capabilities and deployment accelerate toward a post-AGI era, concerns are growing about electricity demand and carbon emissions from AI computing, yet it is rarely represented explicitly in long term energy-economy-climate scenario…
Neural scaling laws characterize how model performance improves as the model size scales up. Inspired by empirical observations, we introduce a resource model of neural scaling. A task is usually composite hence can be decomposed into many…
Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the…
Does continued scaling of large language models (LLMs) yield diminishing returns? In this work, we show that short-task benchmarks may give an illusion of slowing progress, as even marginal gains in single-step accuracy can compound into…
Downstream scaling laws aim to predict task performance at larger scales from the model's performance at smaller scales. Whether such prediction should be possible is unclear: some works discover clear linear scaling trends after simple…
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology is revolutionizing the computing industry. Not only its applications have broadened to various sectors but also poses new system design and optimization opportunities. The technology is…
The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), has raised concerns regarding its global environmental impact that extends beyond greenhouse gas emissions to include consideration of hardware…
The emergence of agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI), which can operate autonomously, demonstrate goal-directed behavior, and adaptively learn, indicates the onset of a massive change in today's computing infrastructure. This study…
As artificial intelligence systems increasingly collaborate with humans in creative and technical domains, questions arise about the cognitive boundaries and biases that shape our shared agency. This paper investigates the Dunning-Kruger…
Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to…
Do leading LLM developers possess a proprietary ``secret sauce'', or is LLM performance driven by scaling up compute? Using training and benchmark data for 809 models released between 2022 and 2025, we estimate scaling-law regressions with…
Dramatic increases in the capabilities of neural network models in recent years are driven by scaling model size, training data, and corresponding computational resources. To develop the exceedingly large networks required in modern…