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In 2016, the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) published guidelines for the evaluation, interpretation and reporting of scientific evidence. In the guidelines, ENFSI endorsed the use of the likelihood ratio (LR) as a…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-25 Nathaniel Garton , Danica Ommen , Jarad Niemi , Alicia Carriquiry

We consider the impact that temporal correlations in the measurement statistics can have on the achievable precision in a sequential metrological protocol. In this setting, and for a single quantum probe, we establish that it is the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-04-02 Eoin O'Connor , Steve Campbell , Gabriel T. Landi

The classical paradigm of scoring rules is to discriminate between two different forecasts by comparing them with observations. The probability distribution of the observed record is assumed to be perfect as a verification benchmark. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-06 Julie Bessac , Philippe Naveau

This paper introduces an algorithm to select demonstration examples for in-context learning of a query set. Given a set of $n$ examples, how can we quickly select $k$ out of $n$ to best serve as the conditioning for downstream inference?…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Ziniu Zhang , Zhenshuo Zhang , Dongyue Li , Lu Wang , Jennifer Dy , Hongyang R. Zhang

This paper tackles the challenge of parameter calibration in stochastic models, particularly in scenarios where the likelihood function is unavailable in an analytical form. We introduce a gradient-based simulated parameter estimation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-25 Zehao Li , Yijie Peng

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-16 Aden Forrow , Ruth E. Baker

Gradient-based methods enable efficient search capabilities in high dimensions. However, in order to apply them effectively in offline optimization paradigms such as offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) or Imitation Learning (IL), we require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-18 H. J. Terry Suh , Glen Chou , Hongkai Dai , Lujie Yang , Abhishek Gupta , Russ Tedrake

Any prediction from a model is made by a combination of learning history and test stimuli. This provides significant insights for improving model interpretability: {\it because of which part(s) of which training example(s), the model…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-11-03 Yuxian Meng , Chun Fan , Zijun Sun , Eduard Hovy , Fei Wu , Jiwei Li

Perception is often viewed as a process that transforms physical variables, external to an observer, into internal psychological variables. Such a process can be modeled by a function coined perceptual scale. The perceptual scale can be…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-19 Jonathan Vacher , Pascal Mamassian

Measuring the growth rate of large-scale structures (f) as a function of redshift has the potential to break degeneracies between modified gravity and dark energy models, when combined with expansion-rate probes. Direct estimates of…

Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) is a well-known method for dimensionality reduction and classification. Previous studies have also extended the binary-class case into multi-classes. However, many applications, such as object detection…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-24 Gang Chen

In the traditional object recognition pipeline, descriptors are densely sampled over an image, pooled into a high dimensional non-linear representation and then passed to a classifier. In recent years, Fisher Vectors have proven empirically…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-01-27 Benjamin Klein , Guy Lev , Gil Sadeh , Lior Wolf

Gaussian mixture models form a flexible and expressive parametric family of distributions that has found applications in a wide variety of applications. Unfortunately, fitting these models to data is a notoriously hard problem from a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-05 Yuling Yan , Kaizheng Wang , Philippe Rigollet

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation using Newton's method in nonlinear state space models (SSMs) is a challenging problem due to the analytical intractability of the log-likelihood and its gradient and Hessian. We estimate the gradient and…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-11 Manon Kok , Johan Dahlin , Thomas B. Schön , Adrian Wills

We present a new tree boosting algorithm designed for the measurement of parameters in the context of effective field theory (EFT). To construct the algorithm, we interpret the optimized loss function of a traditional decision tree as the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2022-05-25 Suman Chatterjee , Nikolaus Frohner , Lukas Lechner , Robert Schöfbeck , Dennis Schwarz

We investigate a semiparametric regression model where one gets noisy non linear non invertible functions of the observations. We focus on the application to bearings-only tracking. We first investigate the least squares estimator and prove…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-17 Elisabeth Gassiat , Benoit Landelle

Score matching provides an effective approach to learning flexible unnormalized models, but its scalability is limited by the need to evaluate a second-order derivative. In this paper, we present a scalable approximation to a general family…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-19 Ziyu Wang , Shuyu Cheng , Yueru Li , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

Estimating the test performance of a model, possibly under distribution shift, without having access to the ground-truth labels is a challenging, yet very important problem for the safe deployment of machine learning algorithms in the wild.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Renchunzi Xie , Ambroise Odonnat , Vasilii Feofanov , Ievgen Redko , Jianfeng Zhang , Bo An

We consider the problem of parameter estimation for a class of continuous-time state space models. In particular, we explore the case of a partially observed diffusion, with data also arriving according to a diffusion process. Based upon a…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas , Hamza Ruzayqat

We propose a score-based generative algorithm for sampling from power-scaled priors and likelihoods within the Bayesian inference framework. Our algorithm enables flexible control over prior-likelihood influence without requiring retraining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Huseyin Tuna Erdinc , Yunlin Zeng , Abhinav Prakash Gahlot , Felix J. Herrmann