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Related papers: First-passage time for PDifMPs: an Exact simulatio…

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We develop the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusions by allowing for jumps in instantaneous drift and…

The First Passage Time (FPT) is the time taken for a stochastic process to reach a desired threshold. In this letter we address the FPT of the stochastic measurement current in the case of continuously measured quantum systems. Our approach…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-08-08 Michael J. Kewming , Anthony Kiely , Steve Campbell , Gabriel T. Landi

The simulation of exit times for diffusion processes is a challenging task since it concerns many applications in different fields like mathematical finance, neuroscience, reliability... The usual procedure is to use discretiza-tion schemes…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-14 Samuel Herrmann , C. Zucca

We study the statistics of first passage times (FPTs) of trajectory observables in both classical and quantum Markov processes. We consider specifically the FPTs of counting observables, that is, the times to reach a certain threshold of a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-05-17 George Bakewell-Smith , Federico Girotti , Mădălin Guţă , Juan P. Garrahan

Piecewise diffusion Markov processes (PDifMPs) form a versatile class of stochastic hybrid systems that combine continuous diffusion processes with discrete event-driven dynamics, enabling flexible modelling of complex real-world hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Sascha Desmettre , Agnes Mallinger , Amira Meddah , Irene Tubikanec

We determine the survival probability and first-passage time (FPT) to capture for a harmonically trapped particle, diffusing outside an absorbing spherical boundary by directly solving the differential equation for the survival probability.…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-06-18 Tianyu Yuan , Ivan Surovtsev , Megan C. King , Simon G. J. Mochrie

The first passage time (FPT) problem is studied for superstatistical models assuming that the mesoscopic system dynamics is described by a Fokker-Planck equation. We show that all moments of the random intensive parameter associated to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-01-30 Adrián A. Budini , Manuel O. Cáceres

Evaluating the completion time of a random algorithm or a running stochastic process is a valuable tip not only from a purely theoretical, but also pragmatic point of view. In the formal sense, this kind of a task is specified in terms of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-11-24 Przemyslaw Chelminiak

We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-09-28 Alice Cleynen , Benoîte de Saporta

Many scientific questions can be framed as asking for a first passage time (FPT), which generically describes the time it takes a random "searcher" to find a "target." The important timescale in a variety of biophysical systems is the time…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Hwai-Ray Tung , Sean D Lawley

A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Dario Gasbarra , Sangita Kulathinal , Etienne Sebag

Fastest arrival events, where the first among many diffusing particles reaches a target, are central in triggering signal initiation in molecular stochastic systems. Classical approaches to simulate such events rely on full trajectory…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Emmanuel Akame Mfoumou , David Holcman

The first passage time (FPT) problem is ubiquitous in many applications. In finance, we often have to deal with stochastic processes with jump-diffusion, so that the FTP problem is reducible to a stochastic differential equation with…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Di Zhang , Roderick V. N. Melnik

We consider a Markovian jumping process with two absorbing barriers, for which the waiting-time distribution involves a position-dependent coefficient. We solve the Fokker-Planck equation with boundary conditions and calculate the mean…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-10-16 A. Kamińska , T. Srokowski

First passage time models describe the time it takes for a random process to exit a region of interest and are widely used across various scientific fields. Fast and accurate numerical methods for computing the likelihood function in these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-17 Sicheng Liu , Alexander Fengler , Michael J. Frank , Matthew T. Harrison

We study the mean first-passage time (MFPT) for asymmetric continuous-time random walks in continuous-space characterised by waiting-times with finite mean and by jump-sizes with both finite mean and finite variance. In the asymptotic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-01-11 M. Dahlenburg , G. Pagnini

New theorems for the moments of the first passage time of one dimensional nonlinear stochastic processes with an entrance boundary are formulated. This important class of one dimensional stochastic processes results among others from…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-04-22 Leo Dostal , Navaratnam Sri Namachchivaya

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) are a class of stochastic processes with applications in several fields of applied mathematics spanning from mathematical modeling of physical phenomena to computational methods. A PDMP is…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-30 Andrea Bertazzi , Joris Bierkens , Paul Dobson

The first-passage time (FPT), defined as the time a random walker takes to reach a target point in a confining domain, is a key quantity in the theory of stochastic processes. Its importance comes from its crucial role to quantify the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-02-01 T. Guérin , N. Levernier , O. Bénichou , R. Voituriez