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The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes for generating samples from Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm is asymptotically exact, flexible and easy to implement.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Estevão Prado , Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

A simple and efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolized Adaptive Subspace (MAdaSub) algorithm, is proposed for sampling from high-dimensional posterior model distributions in Bayesian variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Christian Staerk , Maria Kateri , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach that exhibits favourable exploration properties in high-dimensional models such as neural networks. Unfortunately, HMC has limited use in large-data regimes and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-15 Adam D. Cobb , Brian Jalaian

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-07 Duo Xu

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) and stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) are two popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for Bayesian inference that can scale to large datasets, allowing to sample from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-30 Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Xuefeng Gao , Yuanhan Hu , Lingjiong Zhu

Decision trees have found widespread application within the machine learning community due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed towards learning decision trees from data using a Bayesian approach, which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Jodie A. Cochrane , Adrian G. Wills , Sarah J. Johnson

Recent work on backpropagation-free learning has shown that it is possible to use forward-mode automatic differentiation (AD) to perform optimization on differentiable models. Forward-mode AD requires sampling a tangent vector for each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Adam D. Cobb , Susmit Jha

Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$; Chopin et al., 2012) methods can be used to sample from the exact posterior distribution of intractable likelihood state space models. These methods are the SMC analogue to particle Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-24 Imke Botha , Robert Kohn , Leah South , Christopher Drovandi

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful but computationally expensive way of performing non-parametric Bayesian inference. MCMC proposals which utilise gradients, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), can better explore the…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Daniel Frisch , Simon Maskell

In this paper, we address the challenge of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms within the approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework, which often get trapped in local optima due to their inherent local exploration mechanism. We…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-16 Xuefei Cao , Shijia Wang , Yongdao Zhou

We investigate the effect of using local and non-local second derivative information on the performance of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods, for high-dimension non-Gaussian distributions, with application to Bayesian inference…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-03 Mina Karimi , Kaushik Dayal , Matteo Pozzi

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-01 Hector J. Hortua , Riccardo Volpi , Dimitri Marinelli , Luigi Malago

Uncertainty estimation is a key issue when considering the application of deep neural network methods in science and engineering. In this work, we introduce a novel algorithm that quantifies epistemic uncertainty via Monte Carlo sampling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-06 Sebastian Bieringer , Gregor Kasieczka , Maximilian F. Steffen , Mathias Trabs

Calibrating statistical models using Bayesian inference often requires both accurate and timely estimates of parameters of interest. Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (p-MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo Squared (SMC$^2$) are two methods…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-23 Conor Rosato , Alessandro Varsi , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in Bayesian computations. However, they need to access the full data set in order to evaluate the posterior density at every step of the algorithm. This results in a great…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-21 Mike Giles , Tigran Nagapetyan , Lukasz Szpruch , Sebastian Vollmer , Konstantinos Zygalakis

An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-17 Naoki Awaya , Yasuhiro Omori

Most of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in existing probabilistic programming systems suboptimally use only model priors as proposal distributions. In this work, we describe an approach for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-05-17 Yura N Perov , Tuan Anh Le , Frank Wood

Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-04 Andrew Golightly , Theodore Kypraios

Advances in digital sensors, digital data storage and communications have resulted in systems being capable of accumulating large collections of data. In the light of dealing with the challenges that massive data present, this work proposes…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-09 Allan De Freitas , François Septier , Lyudmila Mihaylova