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To interpret uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, recent work has proposed generating a single Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanation (CLUE) for a given data point where the model is uncertain, identifying…
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…
Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in safety-critical scenarios, as it enables them to abstain from responding when uncertain, thereby avoiding hallucinations, i.e., plausible…
Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong average performance yet remain unreliable at the instance level, with frequent hallucinations, brittle failures, and poorly calibrated confidence. We study reliability through the lens of…
Large language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant breakthroughs across diverse domains; however, they can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs. For responsible LLM application, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques are…
In recent years, large-scale language models (LLMs) have gained attention for their impressive text generation capabilities. However, these models often face the challenge of "hallucination," which undermines their reliability. In this…
Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…
Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though…
State-of-the-art large language models are sometimes distributed as open-source software but are also increasingly provided as a closed-source service. These closed-source large-language models typically see the widest usage by the public,…
We present a novel information-theoretic approach to introduce dependency among features of a deep convolutional neural network (CNN). The core idea of our proposed method, called MUSE, is to combine MUtual information and SElf-information…
As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) becomes critical for safe and effective use. Most existing UQ approaches for language models aim to produce a…
With the advance of large language models (LLMs), LLMs have been utilized for the various tasks. However, the issues of variability and reproducibility of results from each trial of LLMs have been largely overlooked in existing literature…
Large Multimodal Models (LMMs), harnessing the complementarity among diverse modalities, are often considered more robust than pure Language Large Models (LLMs); yet do LMMs know what they do not know? There are three key open questions…
This study evaluates large language models as estimable classifiers and clarifies how modeling choices shape downstream measurement error. Revisiting the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, we show that contemporary classifiers substantially…
Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly being integrated into computational social science research, yet their blackboxed training and designed stochastic elements in inference pose unique challenges for scientific inquiry. This article…
Consistency, which refers to the capability of generating the same predictions for semantically similar contexts, is a highly desirable property for a sound language understanding model. Although recent pretrained language models (PLMs)…
Uncertainty estimation is crucial for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes domains where incorrect answers result in significant consequences. Numerous approaches consider this problem, while focusing on a…
As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated in diverse applications, obtaining reliable measures of their predictive uncertainty has become critically important. A precise distinction between aleatoric uncertainty, arising…
Understanding why a large language model (LLM) is uncertain about the response is important for their reliable deployment. Current approaches, which either provide a single uncertainty score or rely on the classical aleatoric-epistemic…
Large language models (LLMs) are often ensembled together to improve overall reliability and robustness, but in practice models are strongly correlated. This raises a fundamental question: which models should be selected when forming an LLM…