Related papers: Temperature induced tipping in a two box ocean cir…
We analyze the ERA5 reanalysis 2-meter temperature time series on all land grid points using change point analysis. We fit two linear slopes to the data with the constraint that they merge at the point in time where the slope changes. We…
Scrambling of quantum information can be conveniently quantified by so called out-of-time-order-correlators (OTOCs), whose measurements presents a formidable experimental challenge. Here we report on a method for the measurement of OTOCs…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
The two-component cold atom systems with anisotropic hopping amplitudes can be phenomenologically described by a two-dimensional Ising-XY coupled model with spatial anisotropy. At low temperatures, theoretical predictions [Phys. Rev. A 72,…
A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an…
A new method of regime shift detection in the correlation coefficient is proposed. The method is designed to find multiple change-points with unknown locations in time series. It signals a possible regime shift in real time and allows for…
It is well-established that human activity is driving extreme weather patterns, and that these extreme events influence human behaviour. However, few models allow for human behaviours and the climate to dynamically interact. The models…
Long simulation times in climate sciences typically require coarse grids due to computational constraints. Nonetheless, unresolved subscale information significantly influences the prognostic variables and can not be neglected for reliable…
In this work we use the random matrix theory (RMT) to correctly describethe behavior of spectral statistical properties of the sea surface temperatureof oceans. This oceanographic variable plays an important role in theglobalclimate system.…
In the past decades human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby…
First- and second-order temperature driven transitions are studied, in a lattice gas driven by an oscillatory field. The short time dynamics study provides upper and lower bounds for the first-order transition points obtained using standard…
We perform three-dimensional direct numerical simulations of surface-driven convection near the temperature of maximum density $\tilde T_{md}$. A dynamic surface boundary condition couples heat flux through the surface to the induced…
In bistable dynamical systems driven by Wiener processes, the widely used Kramers' law relates the strength of the noise forcing to the average time it takes to see a noise-induced transition from one attractor to the other. We extend this…
Information scrambling, which is the spread of local information through a system's many-body degrees of freedom, is an intrinsic feature of many-body dynamics. In quantum systems, the out-of-time-ordered correlator (OTOC) quantifies…
This paper investigates the initial boundary value problem for a non-stationary one-dimensional heat equation that simulates the temperature distribution in freshwater ice near the Earth's poles. The mathematical model has been constructed…
With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent,…
We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…
A thorough analysis of the stability of a coupled version of an inter-hemispheric 3-box model of Thermohaline Circulation (THC) is presented. This study follows a similarly structured analysis on an uncoupled version of the same model…