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The development of robust Early Warning Signals (EWS) is necessary to quantify the risk of crossing tipping points in the present-day climate change. Classically, EWS are statistical measures based on time series of climate state variables,…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied as their activation would impose a considerable…
The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…
There is strong evidence that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its…
The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater…
Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…
The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the core tipping elements in the climate system with a potential tipping point from rainforest to savannah between 2 and 6 {\deg}C of global warming. However, ongoing deforestation constitutes an…
Tipping refers to the transition of a system from one state to another. In this study, we focus on shock-induced tipping, which occurs due to a sudden and large disturbance in a control parameter, which is referred to as the shock. This…
Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization…
The identification of tipping points is essential for prediction of collapses or other sudden changes in complex systems. Applications include studies of ecology, thermodynamics, climatology, and epidemiology. However, detecting early signs…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…
We report a numerical observation where the infinite-temperature out-of-time-order correlators (OTOCs) directly probe quantum phase transitions at zero temperature, in contrast to common intuition where low energy quantum effects are washed…
Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural forcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature correlations…
Tipping points have been shown to be ubiquitous, both in models and empirically in a range of physical and biological systems. The question of how tipping points cascade through systems has been less well studied and is an important one. A…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…
The Amazon rainforest and the AMOC are considered to be tipping elements: they are important components of the Earth system, but may collapse under climate change. Moreover, an AMOC collapse may favor the transition of the rainforest to a…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a proposed climate intervention technology to partially offset greenhouse gas warming and possibly avoid crossing climate tipping points. The impacts of MCB on regional climate are typically estimated using…