Related papers: Bayesian Generalized Nonlinear Models Offer Basis …

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their…

Data-driven methodologies are nowadays ubiquitous. Their rapid development and spread have led to applications even beyond the traditional fields of science. As far as dynamical systems and differential equations are concerned, neural…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

We review theory and methodology of the class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) that provide flexibility, parsimony and scalability of multivariate time series analysis. Discussion includes core theoretical aspects…

interpretable, and well understood models that are routinely employed even though, as is revealed through prior and posterior predictive checks, these can poorly characterise the spatial heterogeneity in the underlying process of interest.…

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

We pursue tractable Bayesian analysis of generalized linear models (GLMs) for categorical data. Thus far, GLMs are difficult to scale to more than a few dozen categories due to non-conjugacy or strong posterior dependencies when using…

A different route to identification of time-invariant linear systems has been recently proposed which does not require committing to a specific parametric model structure. Impulse responses are described in a nonparametric Bayesian…

Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now an established method for conducting approximate Bayesian inference in models where, due to the intractability of the likelihood function, exact Bayesian approaches are either infeasible or…

In this paper, we give an in-depth error analysis for surrogate models generated by a variant of the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) method. We start with an overview of a variety of non-linear system identification…

The recent mass adoption of DNNs, even in safety-critical scenarios, has shifted the focus of the research community towards the creation of inherently intrepretable models. Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) constitute a popular approach…

We propose a novel data-driven method called QENDy (Quadratic Embedding of Nonlinear Dynamics) that not only allows us to learn quadratic representations of highly nonlinear dynamical systems, but also to identify the governing equations.…

State estimation of dynamical systems is crucial for providing new decision-making and system automation information in different applications. However, the assumptions on the standard computational models for sensor measurements can be…

Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) and similar regression approaches such as MIDAS have been used for many decades in econometrics and more recently to investigate how poor air quality adversely affects human health. In this paper we describe…

We extend the data-driven method of Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) developed by Brunton et al, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci USA 113 (2016) to the case of delay differential equations (DDEs). This is achieved in a bilevel…

The generalized partially linear additive model (GPLAM) is a flexible and interpretable approach to building predictive models. It combines features in an additive manner, allowing each to have either a linear or nonlinear effect on the…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…

We introduce the spike-and-slab group lasso (SSGL) for Bayesian estimation and variable selection in linear regression with grouped variables. We further extend the SSGL to sparse generalized additive models (GAMs), thereby introducing the…

The Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) algorithm can be applied to stochastic differential equations to estimate the drift and the diffusion function using data from a realization of the SDE. The SINDy algorithm requires…

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have…