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When a language model generates text, the selection of individual tokens might lead it down very different reasoning paths, making uncertainty difficult to quantify. In this work, we consider whether reasoning language models represent the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-07 Amir Zur , Atticus Geiger , Ekdeep Singh Lubana , Eric Bigelow

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Gal Yona , Roee Aharoni , Mor Geva

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Lucie Kunitomo-Jacquin , Edison Marrese-Taylor , Ken Fukuda

Padding tokens are widely used in large language models (LLMs) to equalize sequence lengths during batched inference. While they should be fully masked, implementation errors can cause them to influence computation, and the extent of this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Rom Himelstein , Amit LeVi , Yonatan Belinkov , Avi Mendelson

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yuheng Huang , Jiayang Song , Zhijie Wang , Shengming Zhao , Huaming Chen , Felix Juefei-Xu , Lei Ma

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Hsiu-Yuan Huang , Yutong Yang , Zhaoxi Zhang , Sanwoo Lee , Yunfang Wu

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to hallucination with non-factual or unfaithful statements, which undermines the applications in real-world scenarios. Recent researches focus on uncertainty-based hallucination detection, which…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Kedi Chen , Qin Chen , Jie Zhou , Xinqi Tao , Bowen Ding , Jingwen Xie , Mingchen Xie , Peilong Li , Feng Zheng , Liang He

Large language models (LLMs) could be valuable personal AI agents across various domains, provided they can precisely follow user instructions. However, recent studies have shown significant limitations in LLMs' instruction-following…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Juyeon Heo , Miao Xiong , Christina Heinze-Deml , Jaya Narain

The remarkable performance of large language models (LLMs) in content generation, coding, and common-sense reasoning has spurred widespread integration into many facets of society. However, integration of LLMs raises valid questions on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-03 Ola Shorinwa , Zhiting Mei , Justin Lidard , Allen Z. Ren , Anirudha Majumdar

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

Over the past few years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have developed rapidly and are widely applied in various domains. However, LLMs face the issue of hallucinations, generating responses that may be unreliable when the models lack…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Huan Ma , Jingdong Chen , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Guangyu Wang , Changqing Zhang

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained significant popularity for their impressive performance across diverse fields. However, LLMs are prone to hallucinate untruthful or nonsensical outputs that fail to meet user expectations in many…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Tianhang Zhang , Lin Qiu , Qipeng Guo , Cheng Deng , Yue Zhang , Zheng Zhang , Chenghu Zhou , Xinbing Wang , Luoyi Fu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for clinical reasoning tasks, which inherently require eliciting calibrated probabilistic beliefs based on available evidence. However, real-world clinical data are frequently…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Yuta Kobayashi , Vincent Jeanselme , Shalmali Joshi

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Large language models (LLMs) often generate fluent but factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, which undermine their reliability in real-world applications. While uncertainty estimation has emerged as a promising strategy for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

Conversation forecasting tasks a model with predicting the outcome of an unfolding conversation. For instance, it can be applied in social media moderation to predict harmful user behaviors before they occur, allowing for preventative…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Anthony Sicilia , Malihe Alikhani

We investigate the robustness of Large Language Models (LLMs) to structural interventions by deleting and swapping adjacent layers during inference. Surprisingly, models retain 72-95% of their original top-1 prediction accuracy without any…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Vedang Lad , Jin Hwa Lee , Wes Gurnee , Max Tegmark

Large language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant breakthroughs across diverse domains; however, they can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs. For responsible LLM application, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Qihao Wen , Jiahao Wang , Yang Nan , Pengfei He , Ravi Tandon , Han Xu

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Yikun Wang , Rui Zheng , Liang Ding , Qi Zhang , Dahua Lin , Dacheng Tao